Strikes on export facilities in Ukraine added to confusion in markets. they rallied, then mostly closed lower.
- Chicago wheat July contract up US1.25 cents per bushel to 976.5c/bu;
- Kansas wheat July contract down 2c/bu to 1039.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat July contract down 11.75c/bu to 1106c/bu;
- MATIF wheat September contract down €2/t to €370.50/t;
- Black Sea wheat July contract down $1.25/t to $400.50/t;
- Corn July contract up 7.25c/bu to 768c/bu;
- Soybeans July contract down 28.25c/bu to 1652.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$41.80/t to $912.10/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €27.25/t to €691.25/t;
- ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A$11/t to 439/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $2/t to $458/t;
- AUD dollar firmer at US$0.696.
If you ever were to need a reminder about the structure of agricultural futures markets, this is it. Getting capital into our futures contract is a relatively simple process, but getting money out is a completely different proposition. It is a slow, sometimes painful, exercise. Last night saw markets rally on reports that both Bunge and Viterra’s port infrastructure in the port of Mykolaiv suffered damage after Russian rockets hit their infrastructure. Despite this serious news, markets later in the day found selling on renewed talk of an export corridor being established between the Ukraine and Turkey. If we rolled back a month and presented the market with today’s news, a port full of vegoil suffering rocket damage and bursting into flames, the market would have had a very different close.
Row crops are in the heart of the weather hitting zone. Corn conditions slid last week and the crop has had nothing but hot weather and virtually no rainfall since. The 2-week outlook doesn’t provide much in the way of meaningful relief but markets chose to focus on the fact some heat was removed from the very back end of the forecast. Corn is heavily invested but the spec sitting almost record long for this time of year. Unlike wheat, the CFTC report isn’t showing the exit of capital yet. Clearly the short wheat, long corn trade has some passengers.
It is interesting how a capital exit can also create some meaningful dislocations. SRW wheat is now pricing under both Russian and French wheat which is not something that tends to happen for any length of time.
There is more talk around the size of the Indian crop after the close yesterday with many now seeing it as an importer, not providing 10-plus million tonnes to the export market many had a few months ago – once again, bullish if this was presented a few months ago… today… ho hum.
Local markets were quiet post the fun and games offshore. Northern feed markets were nominally $5/t softer this week but volumes are low. Signs that suppliers are catching up on existing contracts while the consumer is relatively comfortable for the moment. A lack of export demand due to full supply chains is also adding some pressure to local values.
Sorghum harvest is finally coming to an end in southern Qld and NNSW after a long and drawn-out couple of months. A run of good weather has allowed ground to dry out and grain to dry down in most areas. Sorghum harvested before the rain delay was largely of excellent quality and high yields. However, roughly one third of the Qld and NSW crop has been downgraded due to sprouting caused by the wet conditions, which will mostly end up in the domestic feed market.
Showers are forecast to develop on Monday over Qld and NSW but are expected to be less than 5mm at this stage.