Markets

Daily Market Wire 23 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting, November 23, 2022

Markets were easier overnight, mostly by less than 1pc. The dollar index eased. Brent crude and the Dow Jones Industrials Average gained about 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat March 2023 contract down US7.75 cents per bushel to 810.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March 2023 contract down 10.75c/bu at 912c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract down 3.5c/bu to 950.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2023 contract down €0.50/t to  €321.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$0.50 to $321.25/t;
  • Corn March 2023 contract down 4.25c/bu to 659.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract down 5.25c/bu to 1436.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was down C$7.70/t at $829.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract up €1.75/t to €604.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $A4/t to $436/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$327.50/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.665.

International

Russian wheat exports have spiked between October and mid-November, according to figures attributed to industry organisation, the Russian Grain Union. At 18 Nov the 2022-23 (Jul/Jun) wheat exports projection would be 21Mt, up 2pc year on year and the pace of exports had picked up from October onwards. It said Russia had exported 3.2Mt wheat in the first 18 days of November, up 120pc y/y and the November total would be 5.5Mt, almost 3.0Mt higher y/y.
Egypt’s GASC will start offering wheat from state reserves to millers twice a week via the country’s commodity exchange, starting Sunday 27 November.
Taiwan millers bought 43,400t US origin milling wheat in a tender closing late last week, for early-mid January shipment, prices for diverse types ranging from US$355-425/t FOB PNW. 

Brazilian agricultural consultancy AgRural reports at 21 November the 2022-23 soybean plantings are estimated to be 80pc complete (69pc week ago, 86pc year ago). Seeding in centre west areas is largely finished, although recent irregular rains have heightened worries among growers. Low humidity was noted in parts of Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais and Goiás. Nevertheless, there are no significant risks to yields in core areas, especially if more precipitation is received in the coming weeks. The 2022-23 primary (full-season) maize sowings were pegged at 82pc complete (70pc, 91pc), with fields in southern areas developing well despite earlier weather-related concerns. The Ministry of Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) in Brazil estimated maize exports in the week to 20 November at 1.2Mt and cumulative MY (Mar/Feb) shipments at 32.1Mt (+144pc on one year ago). Soybean exports that week were 660,300t, and the MY (Feb/Jan) total was 74.6Mt (-14pc). 

The EU Joint research Centre November 2022 MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) bulletin reported the warmest European weather in around three decades in many areas, together with adequate topsoil moisture, boosted the emergence and development of 2023-24 winter cereal crops, while also benefiting later-sown fields. However, there are some background worries, including the susceptibility of plants to frost, and pest infestation and disease. 

Warm conditions were also beneficial for 2023-24 winter rapeseed crops, notably in most parts of France, while plants in other countries, such as Germany and Poland, were boosted by good soil moisture. This also allowed the development of crops to accelerate after earlier delays. As with grains, however, there were some concerns about the impact of pest pressure in some parts. 

Australia

Local markets eased further in harvest slots and forwards. Prompt wheat and barley continued well bid. We finally have a clearer rainfall forecast on the horizon for growers to get a decent run at harvest coming into the back end of this week, which may see further pressure on forward prices. 

 

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