Overnight futures markets
Mixed for grains and oilseeds.
- CBOT wheat down -2.75c to 474.5c,
- Kansas wheat up 0.75c to 502.75c,
- Corn up 2c to 387.5c,
- Soybean down -8c to 1032.25c,
- Winnipeg Canola up 2.20$C to 536$C,
- Matif canola unchanged at 343€,
- The Dow Jones down -14.25 to 24448.69,
- Crude Oil up 0.5c to $US68.9 per barrel,
- AUD down to 0.760c,
- CAD up to 1.284c, (AUDCAD 0.976) and the
- EUR down to 1.220c (AUDEUR 0.6228).
Wheat finished mixed across the classes, with a stronger USD keeping bulls on the sidelines.
The weekend’s weather and upcoming forecast is probably not enough to support wheat at this part of the chart range, but we will need to see another set of bullish fundamentals to encourage a break through recent highs.
State quality reports came out this morning for the US, with no major surprises noted; the crop still rates 31 per cent (pc) good to excellent.
Weekly export inspections for wheat were 691,000t. Russian wheat was bid US$216/t free on board for May, which is a $2/t inverse to June at $214/t and $7/t to July for 11.5pc protein.
Corn prices managed to finish higher on the day, despite improved warmth and lack of moisture for the northern plains forecast.
Planting increased from 3-5pc planted this week vs. an average of 14pc.
Sorghum planting is progressing well, despite unsavoury price signals stemming from China’s import restrictions.
The crop is 24pc planted vs an average of 23pc.
Concerns are mounting for Brazil’s Safrinha (later-planted corn) crop that is becoming moisture stressed.
Export inspections came in at 1.7 million tonnes (Mt).
Soybeans retreated with fund selling noted on the back of China’s Canada bean imports, as well as a weaker macro situation.
US treasury notes hit levels not seen since January 2014, while the USD reached new monthly highs.
Soymeal was down $2.40/t, while soy oil was down 26 points.
Weekly export inspections came in at 470,000t.
Canola continues to show strength in Canada as limited grower selling coincides with seasonal highs in basis and a large short covering effort in the May contract.
A weaker dollar (down 0.7%) also provided good flat price support.
This lack of grower liquidity is forcing the market to revisit the incredibly bearish production figures from Statscan (Canada’s national statistics agency) and reassess their plausibility.
Aussie markets were unchanged yesterday, although quiet in typical Monday fashion.
The weaker currency should help flat prices today. Our dollar has done a power of work in the last three sessions, dropping 180 points.
The poor weather outlook is not helping, there was a reasonable forecast expected in the first week of May, but that has vanished for now.
We expect to see increased flat priced support in old crop today.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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