Weather: Russian rainfall is still well off the 30-year normal with the forecast not signalling any improvement, coupled with variable temperature has analysts indicating a widespread winterkill risk through parts of Russia and Ukraine.
Colby, Kansas weather. Precipitation improved to above normal mid-February. Temperatures below normal are forecast to increase this week. Source: Bloomberg via Lachstock. Click expand.
Markets: Corn futures moved lower to end the week with ideas of increased corn acres and favourable conditions ahead of spring plant. Wheat was stronger with global weather concerns for the wheat crop tighten the supply, coupled with Russian export quotas.
Australian Day ahead: Stronger US wheat futures and some of the Aussie dollar’s gains given back on Friday night, should see wheat bids firmer domestically today. Canola futures losses should be offset by the currency move to be largely unchanged to begin the week.
Offshore
The USDA export sales report week ending February 13 had export sales of current and new crop wheat higher than expectations. Current crop was 532,700t and new crop 98,500t.
It also reported corn sales w/e Feb 13 at 1.45 million tonnes (Mt) versus expected 1.25Mt and soybean sales 780kt versus expected 300kt. Mexico was the top buyer of wheat and corn, China the top buyer of soybeans.
As of February 17, France’s agriculture minister rated the winter wheat crop at 74 percent good-to-excellent, up one percentage point from the previous week. This is an improvement over last year’s 69pc g/e rating at the same time, though that was a four-year low.
Risk-off sentiment on Friday lent support for the US dollar and drove the AUD/USD lower to mid-0.63 levels.
Economic uncertainty over tariffs and spending cuts dampened US economic activity in February. Expectations for future growth weakened, and concerns grew over long-term inflation expectations. Soft surveys released on Friday showed both businesses and consumers unsettled by recent policy moves.
Australia
WA canola bids ended the week largely unchanged at around $865 with GM $750. Wheat was bid $370 and barley $345. New crop canola was around $810 and $765 for GM with wheat $390.
In the east of the country canola ended the week bid $780 with wheat bid $348 and barley $318. New crop canola $762 with wheat $372.
Sorghum bids remained strong despite the big crop that is in the process of the being harvested. Delivered Brisbane/Newcastle bids were around $355 with the Darling Downs $323.
Southern Australian growers will be looking for some decent rainfall in March to provide some level of confidence ahead of planting the 2025 crop. Soil moisture is below average through large parts giving no confidence to grower to get the crop in early.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Water Outlook
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