Markets

Daily Market Wire 24 July 2019

Lachstock Consulting, July 24, 2019

Small moves were typical across grains and oilseeds futures overnight.

  • Chicago wheat September contract unchanged at 487.25 cents per bushel
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 2.25c to 431.5c,
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 0.75c to 520.5c,
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €0.25 per tonne to €174.50;
  • Corn September contract up 3.25c to 425.5;
  • Soybeans August contract down 2.5c to 885.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$0.50/t to $447.50;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €2.50 to €376.75;
  • Brent crude September contract up $0.57 per barrel to $63.83;
  • Dow Jones up 177.29 points to 27,349.19;
  • AUD weakened US$0.6995c;
  • CAD weakened to $1.3141;
  • EUR strengthened to $1.115

Market news

Grain markets quieted down in the US overnight, stemming the prior day’s rout. Crude oil politics remain a mess, with reports that another Iranian drone may have been shot down after harassing a US warship.  The AUD broke back down yesterday and is currently trading at 69.8¢ after dovish comments from the RBA, while the CAD is steady at $1.314 and the EUR at $1.115 (half a cent weaker amid expectations of more easing).  Meanwhile, with Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson set to be confirmed as the UK’s next Prime Minister tomorrow, the GBP has sunk to back to 1.244.  (A reminder that the “next” Brexit deadline is October 31st, only three months away.)

Today was the first day of the North Dakota spring wheat tour that is underway this week, with the cars covering the southern edge of the state – mostly good yields (no surprise to those watching spring wheat) and some disease pressure reported.  They’ll be moving further north tomorrow, before turning back to the east.  Row crop weather remains generally positive across the central US corn belt, with temperate conditions seen as positive to the maturing crops.  There are a number of industry participants moving across the corn belt this week (and last) attempting to get a better handle on on-ground conditions – all noting significant improvement but with much variability in the stands leaving yield an open question.

Egypt GASC’s tender saw five boats booked – one Russian (a few bucks below other Russian offers) and two each of Romanian and Ukrainian origin.  We also note that (amid the EU heat), water levels in the Rhine have dropped off to the point where barge traffic is being halted – something we saw prove a significant impact for oilseed markets last year.  Apparently the Rhone is still navigable by raft between Lac Leman and Jonction (and beyond) though.

Australia

We are seeing some slight improvements to rainfall models for southern NSW, with the latest runs showing wider chances of ~5 mm across the southern half of the state.  Not much, but better than nothing … which is what remains on all the models for the northern half of the state and southern Qld.

Source: Lachstock Consulting

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