A softer tone is being used by Russia which now says it may carry out “inquiries or inspections” to determine what ships are carrying in the Black Sea, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin. Vershinin was speaking in response to earlier comments by Russia’s Defence Ministry that it would consider all vessels heading to Ukrainian ports as potential carriers of military cargo. Vershinin also made it clear that Russia demands SWIFT access for all of state-owned Rosselkhozbank in order to return to the grain deal. 

Following Russia’s threat of any ships heading to Ukrainian ports being regarded as military vessels, Ukraine released a similar warning for ships heading into Russian ports or Ukrainian areas occupied by Russia.
Turkish President Erdogan is reportedly hopeful his planned talked with Putin in August could lead to a restoration of the deal. 

Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi told Bloomberg TV in an interview, that Russia is trying to “make it difficult” for Ukraine to export grain via the Danube River. Danube export facilities continue to function despite having “some problems” “Nobody knows what they can do today or tomorrow but it’s not the reason to stop exports for us.” Some of the terminals damaged by recent Russian missile attacks could load as much as 30,000 tonnes of grain per day. 

FranceAgriMer reports that as at 17 Jul, 2023-24 common wheat crop was rated 80pc good/excellent (80pc previous week, 63pc previous year), durum at 68pc (68pc, 55pc), spring barley at 73pc (73pc, 50pc) and maize at 82pc (82pc, 75pc). Common wheat harvest at 58pc complete (79pc previous year), durum at 89pc (94pc), winter barley at 99pc (99pc), spring barley at 68pc (72pc).

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, for the week ending 19 July, maize harvest was 67pc complete (76pc 5-year avg), with yields so far mostly below average, but similar to previous expectations. Sorghum harvest was 75pc complete (75pc previous year), with harvest results close to expectations, forecast production maintained at 2.5Mt (3.5Mt previous year). 2023-24 wheat planting at 92pc complete (97pc previous year, 96pc five-year avg), with conditions rated 90pc fair/excellent (88pc previous week, 75pc previous year). Soil moisture availabilities assessed as adequate to optimal in 71pc of wheat areas (66pc week ago).

Recent rainfall in northeast China has relieved drought stress and helped improve soil moisture, according to an agricultural ministry official. The area hit by drought covered 1.33 million hectares. China is the world’s second largest corn producer, and a large portion of the crop comes from the northeast region.
 

The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 108,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the US.

Australia

ASX relaxed into the weekend and landed at A$405/t. It was able to gain $10/t for the week but had a range of A$35/t. PKE APW1 traded up to $420/t on mixed liquidity and canola was also firm at $760/t for new crop. Markets are still mostly in full carry at this stage and are not showing any signs of old crop supply squeeze just yet. 

Daytime temps are starting to rise and the importance of follow up rain is building. The forecast is showing 10-20mm for later this week through NSW. Southern WA caught a handy rainfall Thursday night /Friday morning which will keep crop potential intact for now. southern WA, eastern SA and Vic have 5-25mm on the forecast this week.