Markets

Daily Market Wire 24 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 24, 2024

Overnight moves were mostly less than one percent, mostly firmer. The Dow Jones Industrials Average eased 1 1/2 percent.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up US4.5c/bu to 738.5c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat up 9.25c/bu to 742.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat up 7.75c/bu to 769c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €1/t to €263.75/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 up 2.5c/bu to 486.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 down 2.25c/bu to 1216c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C5.70/t to C$693.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €6.50/t to €502.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat unchanged at $400/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley up $8/t to $345.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 13 points to US$0.6607.

International

In what appears to be a race to the bottom, since USDA published its 88Mt Russian wheat production forecast, others have grabbed headlines with a lower number. The latest number provided by Stratégie Grains reckons the Russian crop is 85.5Mt from its previous 90.4Mt estimate. I’m not completely confident that the numbers are derived from the same origins, for example production in Ukraine occupied territories could conceivably be allocated to the Russian balances or may remain in the Ukraine. This derivation will become more important given challenging conditions faced in both areas. 

International Grains Council (IGC) predicted world wheat feed use will fall by almost 8Mt while feed use of maize and barley will rise. A consequence of cuts to the Russian wheat crop, IGC reduced its 2024/25 world grain ending stock forecast to 580Mt, 12Mt lower than previous month forecast and representing a multi-year stock decline. In 2021/22 ending stocks were 611Mt. Stock held among the major exporters at the end of 2024/25 were forecast 142Mt vs 146Mt in 2023/24. 

Russia’s weather forecast continues to provide little relief from heat, but temperatures should ease later in the forecast period. The upside of the hot weather in Russia is that since emerging from winter dormancy crops have matured around two weeks ahead of normal. 

Too much moisture has hindered crop development in Europe. According to French and UK data since 1981 around half the arable land has experienced either its wettest or second wettest February to May.

Australia

WA current crop wheat values have risen again to the November 2023 early harvest levels, most of the lift in offshore futures has been added to local bids and the Australian wheat balance sheet continues to tighten. Kwinana APW1 has traded up to A$420/t FIS, H2 about $428/t FIS and H1 about $440/t. WA new season canola (CAN) bids have now lifted to $820/t FIS, and new season APW1 MG wheat bids strengthened to $430/t FIS. Feed barley MG bids have also improved to $355/t FIS. 

Current crop APW1 Geelong has increased more than $65/t since March and CAN increased more than $120/t since April lows.

SNSW corn values have rallied recently on stockfeed demand.

 

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