Markets

Daily Market Wire 25 January 2024

Lachstock Consulting, January 25, 2024

Chicago wheat rallied 2 percent, smaller gains flowing into other US boards. Canola rapeseed eased a little.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat up US14.25c/bu to 610.75c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 8.25c/bu to 625.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat up 5.5c/bu to 704.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 unchanged at €217.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 up 5.75c/bu to 462.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 0.5c/bu to 1246.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$4/t to C$639.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €4/t to €433.50/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat down A$2.50/t to $370/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 3 points to US$0.6577

International

Chicago wheat, with double digit gains, was the leader today in the offshore grain markets. Speculative hedge funds remain near record short positions across the grain and oilseed complex. Money flows provided the main support to the wheat market as both end users and speculators grew a little nervous with prices oversold and at current low levels. 

US weather saw precipitation across the southern US up to eastern Midwest overnight, and expecting a similar pattern for the remainder of the week as the Northern Plains and North-West Belt remains mostly dry. The 6–10-day forecast is on the drier side, and temps are expected to hold above normal right through to early Feb. For Brazil, eyes remain on the 6-10-day forecast which remains on the dry side for all corn and beans areas. 

US Farmer Survey yesterday estimated 2024 corn plantings at 92.8 million acres (94.6mln in 2023), soybeans at 84.95 million acres (83.6mln in 2023) and all wheat plantings just shy of 48 million acres (49.6mln in 2023). 

South Korea’s NOFI bought 136,000t corn via tender overnight. 2 x 68,000t at US$247/t C&F for May/June. 

Korea elected not to make a purchase in their international tender this week for 120,000t milling wheat for April thru June. 

Cumulative Ukrainian grain exports since July 1 sit at 22.1Mt, down from 25.7Mt last season according to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry. The split was 12Mt corn, 8.7Mt wheat and 1.3Mt barley. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported grain exports at 3.7Mt so far this month, compared to 3Mt from Jan 1-25, 2023. Cumulative grain exports since July 1 stand at 22.1Mt, down from 25.7Mt last season, and including 8.7Mt wheat, 12Mt corn, and 1.3Mt barley. 

China’s Central Bank is ramping up efforts to address economic problems and restore consumer confidence, announcing a cut in the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves. This is expected to inject $140 billion liquidity into the economy.

Australia

Eastern states were the most active on canola yesterday, with most of the offshore movement being passed onto the grower. Up-country site prices pushed past the $600/t level which saw some sellers enter the market. 

WA wheat and canola values were broadly unchanged again yesterday. Kwinana APW1 at $410/t FIS, H2 remained at $417/t. A bit more demand stepped up for feed barley, and bids improved across the day to as high as $340-345/t FIS BFED in Kwinana. Canola values remained around $690/t FIS for CAN and $660 for CAG. 

Australian markets will be closed tomorrow due to a public holiday.

 

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