Higher for grains, mixed for oilseeds.
- CBOT Wheat up 2c to 446c,
- Kansas Wheat up 2.25c to 450.5c,
- Corn up 2c to 379c,
- Soybean unchanged at 950.25c,
- Winnipeg Canola down -3.09$C to 498.1$C,
- Matif Canola unchanged at 360.5€.
- Dow Jones up 74.50 to 21012.42,
- Crude Oil down -0.170c to 51.3c,
- AUD up to 0.750c,
- CAD down to 1.340c, (AUDCAD 1.005)
- EUR up to 1.121c (AUDEUR 0.668).
Wheat stronger across all contracts on weather and quality concerns. In the US, forecast is calling for rainfall in areas were early HRW harvest is commencing, while SRW caught a bid with talk of Illinois farmers abandoning planted SRW acres. Millers in Missouri and parts of the mid-south will be forced to increase their drawing arc for SRW due to quality issues in their areas. They will have to move further north to draw grain that traditionally flows into the export corridor. Global weather features improved conditions for Russia, while France remains dry amid mounting concerns for its yield potential.
Corn slightly higher as the weather/acreage debate continues. Corn is stuck in the same narrow trading range that has been present for the last three months. A very large catalyst is required to break this; in the meantime the focus will be on acres. The market is stuck in a tug-of-war, with focus flipping from excessive moisture/lost acres, to excessive moisture/increased yields. Weekly ethanol production was slightly lower week on week.
Soybeans were unchanged in a session lacking in fresh inputs. Chinese demand has subsided as crush margins decline ahead of a large round of shipments arriving in June. This is putting downside pressure on things. This was offset by Brazil’s currency, which rallied significantly today, reducing farmer liquidity and USD export prices.
Canola closed lower, with the November contract closing below the key $500 support level. A stronger Canadian dollar led things lower, despite ongoing seeding issues attributed to wet weather. Today the market is viewing the additional moisture as a positive yield influence for seeded areas rather than a threat to total acres.
The Australian dollar has rallied, which should make cash markets softer, particularly in wheat where buyers are hard to find. Weather forecast is similar to yesterday’s, giving nothing to the areas in SA and WA which are in serious need, while continuing to supply Vic in most production areas.
Source: Lachstock Consulting