Markets

Daily Market Wire 25 November 2020

Lachstock Consulting, November 25, 2020

Wheat markets firmed. Canola weakened and the US dollar index, closing at 92.14, made a 31-month low.

Crude oil spiked almost 4pc on further vaccine rollout discussion and the DOW closed higher after a late,  surprise announcement the US federal government would formally begin a transition with the apparent President-elect Biden.

 

  • Chicago wheat March contract up US13cents per bushel to 617.5c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 10.25c/bu to 570.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 8.76c/bu to 569.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March contract up €1.50/t to €211.75;
  • Corn March contract down 0.75c/bu to 432.25c;
  • Soybeans January contract down 0.25c/bu to 1191.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola January contract down C$7.30/t to $576.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract down €3.75 to €411.75;
  • Brent crude January up US$1.77 per barrel to $47.83;
  • Dow Jones index up 455 points to 30046;
  • AUD firmer at $0.736;
  • CAD firmer at $1.300;
  • EUR firmer at $1.190.

International

  • Former US Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen looks to be back into the spotlight again with the announcement that she will be President-elect Biden’s new Treasury Secretary.  She’s been actively calling for more stimulus to help the economy during the coronavirus lockdowns
  • US cash markets have started quieting down into the holiday, with a little bit of farmer hedging being reported but mostly a focus on risk-off/profit-taking as the trading days finish up before the holiday
  • South American weather remains a concern for markets, with the current outlooks holding onto the drier-for-longer pattern for central bean areas.  Overall impact estimates vary and production risks ideas have an even wider range. That is normal, given the point in the season, but it’s certainly not an optimistic situation
  • Some weather models are starting to add a little moisture across the extended outlooks for Black Sea wheat areas, though shorter term maps remain very dry.

Australia

  • Wheat cash bids remained mainly unchanged to a buck firmer on the boards on ASW1 while contract and deferred delivery bids were $2-3/t stronger across the port zones
  • Growers got harvesting again as the day went on and the 8-day forecast is suggesting another good run
  • CBH announced that they set a new daily receivals record on Monday November 23 with 528,678t all grains received into their network, beating the previous record that was set 2 years ago
  • The Aussie rallied to push through US73¢ as the day went on
  • The shipping stem is starting to fill up for December program. Canola vessels are programmed to load ex WA and Port Kembla and we have seen additional barley panamax slots added in from CBH in WA and SA
  • The hot dry weather across Qld and NNSW has been doing a job on already stressed sorghum crops. There’s more talk that in paddocks that may not make a viable yield growers may run the disc plough through the poor crops.

 

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