Markets

Daily Market Wire 26 April 2021

Lachstock Consulting, April 26, 2021

Spring wheats firmed 2 per cent. US dollar weakened.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US1.75c/bu to 712.25c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract up 5.75c/bu to 680.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract up 10.75c/bu to 725.5c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €1.50/t to €219.25/t ;
  • Corn July contract up 1c/bu to 632.5;
  • Soybeans July contract up 1.75c/bu to 1516c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract down C$7.50/t to $824.20;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €7.75/t to €501.25/t;
  • US dollar index down 0.5 to 90.8;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.775;
  • CAD firmer at $1.247;
  • EUR firmer at $1.209;
  • ASX wheat May contract up $5/t to $307/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $8/t to $318/t.

International

Grain markets took a break earlier in the session to end the week, before bidding back up into the close to see Chicago wheat +1 3/4¢ (N), KC +5 3/4¢ (N), Minny +10 3/4¢ (N), and Matif -1.5€ (U) on the earlier close. Corn was up a penny at the close and beans +1 3/4¢ (Matif -7.75€, Winnipeg -$7.5).  Crude oil is up seventy cents to $62.1 WTI / $66.1 Brent after drone attacks on Saudi Arabia from Yemen, and the DOW is back up 228 points.  The USD has fallen to 90.8, with the AUD back to 77.5¢, the CAD $1.247, and the EUR $1.209.

US FOMC meetings for April are scheduled for this Tue, Wed US time.

The ongoing coronavirus challenges in India continue to grab global headlines, with more medical aid being sent and plenty of concerns in economic markets about the hit to the expected global recovery.  With nearly every major economy now having seen a second spike in the virus, who will be next?

New US export sales flashes had 0.336Mt of unknown new crop corn, 0.137Mt of new crop corn to Guatemala, and 0.132Mt of new crop Chinese beans, but nothing yet supporting earlier rumours of Chinese wheat purchases.

Updated US cattle-on-feed figures had totals down from 12 million in March to 11.9 million in April, still up sharply from last year’s levels, +5.3% year-on-year, but below what most had expected to see with substantially lower placements vs expectations.

New price limits for CBOT ag futures come into effect in a week, with corn going to US40¢/bu, beans to $1/bu, and wheat to 45¢/bu.

Egypt’s GASC is back tendering again to start this week, looking for mid-August wheat.

CFTC figures out Friday had slightly lower corn length with positions back 18,000t, beans longer by 30,000t, and Chicago wheat 14,800t longer.

This reflects positions as of Tuesday so the Wed/Thu trading rally won’t show up until this week’s updates.

We’re two weeks from the May WASDE, which brings the first USDA official figures for new crop balance sheets globally. With the ongoing old row crop squeezes there are plenty of questions about how they’ll pencil in demand and stocks for the new season globally.

A reminder that they will be making some format adjustments to their reports this go round to account for the UK leaving the EU.

Spring wheat/canola weather concerns for the northern US/southern Canada are becoming more pressing as we move into May with little to no precipitation on the forecast maps.  Last week’s drought monitor had three quarters of North Dakota in “extreme drought” and similar figures for the eastern/north central spring wheat areas of Montana.  Conditions are slightly better in Canada, but not by much.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange increased their corn crop estimate to 50 million tonnes, reporting positive yield surprises; USDA had forecast  it at 47Mt in April.

Brazilian weather maps are solidly dry across the rest of this week and most of next, though some parts of more northern and western safrinha spots did catch better than expected rains over the weekend.

Australia

Local markets looking fairly quiet to start today with half the country shut down for the holiday. NSW and Victoria do not have a holiday. The ASX will be trading as per normal.

BOM maps are bringing some chances of moisture later this week for the southern edge of the wheat belt in WA, but otherwise there’s nothing much forecast across the two-week maps so far.

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