Daily Market Wire 26 November 2018

Lachstock Consulting, November 26, 2018

Mixed for grains and lower for oilseeds.

  • CBOT Wheat up 0.5c to 507.25c
  • Kansas wheat down -7c to 486c
  • Spring Wheat down -0.75c to 571.25c
  • CBOT Corn down -2.25c to 370.5c
  • Matif Corn down -0.5€ to 174€
  • Soybeans down -2c to 881c
  • Winnipeg Canola down -0.299C$ to 476.1 C$
  • Matif Canola down -0.25€ to 370€
  • Dow Jones down -178.74 to 24285.95
  • Crude oil down -7.71pc to 50.42$bp
  • AUD down -0.0032pc to 0.722
  • CAD down -0.004pc to 0.754
  • EUR down -0.0058pc to 1.133


Beans were fractions lower in a quiet session featuring a 4.5 cent range and holiday (low) volume trade. A private sale of 120,000t was announced to “unknown”. Bean sales came in at 680,000t for the week, in the mid-range of trade expectations, below what is required to inject anything bullish into the US balance sheet. Soybean meal was down US$-0.40 per tonne and soy oil was down -0.16 points. Crude oil was down -7.7 per cent as Saudi production increases to record levels.


Corn traded a 3-cent range, finishing with mild losses in low volume. Corn export sales came in around expectations for the week at 877,000t, but below what is required to reach USDA forecasts.


Wheat was fractions higher in SRW but lower in the other US wheats. SRW traded 7 cents higher early on, with successful GASC sales altering the potential for US exports. But then macros weighted in. Crude oil’s capitulation didn’t help any commodity markets, prompting risk off behaviour that saw USD strength. The higher USD discounted the GASC results with increases in relative values, highlighting to sellers that a lot more sales work needs to be done. Wheat was down -1.75€ to 202.5€, Black Sea Wheat was up 1.75$ to 247.25$ and the Ruble was down -0.85pc to 0.0151. US wheat sales were under what’s required to meet the USDA’s projections, coming in at 330,000t.


Aussie markets finished the week on a stronger note after a horrible start that saw barley prices lose around 8pc, thanks to China’s dumping investigation. The market rallied as soon as the grower turned off the tap. We are seeing an inverse building in the barley market as traders in Australian and China try to shift as much barley in now, in order to beat the clock on any China imposed sanctions. Wheat prices were stable with the bulk of harvest remaining and consumers facing a potential nasty surprise if WA wheat prices don’t perform in a similar fashion to barley. Last week saw beneficial rainfall for sorghum crops in NNSW and SQld with 25-50 millimetres falling. If sorghum faces the same anti-dumping stresses as barley, then this would be an ideal set up for consumers. This week the forecast is calling for 15-25mm in south-central NSW.

Source: Lachstock Consulting



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