Daily Market Wire 26 September 2018

Lachstock Consulting September 26, 2018

Mixed for grains, higher for oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat was down -6.25c to 520.75c,
  • Kansas wheat down -7c to 522c,
  • corn up 3.25c to 363.75c
  • soybeans up 4.75c to 845.75c,
  • Winnipeg canola up $C1.59 to $C490.90, and
  • Matif canola up €4.75 to €367.25.
  • The Dow Jones down -69.84 to 26492.21,
  • Crude Oil up 21c to $US72.08 per barrel, ,
  • AUD down to 0.724c,
  • CAD up to 1.295c, (AUDCAD 0.938)
  • EUR up to 1.176c (AUDEUR 0.616).


Wheat was once again victim of order flow out of wheat length and into corn. Russian volume continues to dominate the global export market, which makes being long wheat a timing issue. Traded volumes are below average, with no fresh input encouraging the market to keep its powder dry until Russian exports have advanced further, or the USDA comes to its senses on world exports. Implied volatility in Dec SRW finished at 22.5pc. Matif wheat was down €2/t to €201/t and Black Sea futures finished fractions lower at US$249.25/t. USDA report this Friday will update US ending stocks and the market is expecting a year on year increase in wheat due to lacklustre demand, thanks to their internal artificial storage mechanism. Otherwise nothing new for wheat, we need to see more demand and convergence in global prices.


Corn finished higher for the fifth session in a row as strong demand combined with an overly sold fund position. A private export sale of 239,000t was announced to Mexico, highlighting the fact already on shorts’ minds, they are short the cheapest corn in the world. This gap was potential widen further as political uncertainty in Argentina reduces growers’ willingness to sell and reduce their exposure to US dollar denominated assets. The chief of Argentina’s central bank resigned after 3 months in the job.  This sent the peso, the Argentine currency, plunging 2.5pc.


Soybeans finished with slight gains, but well off their highs after jumping higher on increased Argentine import potential and wet US weather that prompted some short covering due to potential harvest losses. No new developments on the trade front, other than rumours that the Chinese government was taking out advertisements in US rural press to influence trade policy from the ground up. Soymeal was up $1.70/t and soy oil was up 13 points.


Canola was supported by the higher oilseed complex, as well as some concerns prompted by harvest delays in Canada. European futures led the charge higher, up 1.2pc.


The Aussie forecast features nothing tangible, other than some minor (<10mm) coastal showers in southern WA. Northern NSW and southern Queensland are scheduled to receive 10-15mm which is a start for summer crop, but not enough to turn around the moisture deficit. It might represent a good buying opportunity for sorghum. Cash prices were mixed yesterday with buyers unwilling to drive things to new highs, but sellers unwilling to discount production uncertainty.


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