Daily Market Wire 27 April 2023

Lachstock Consulting, April 27, 2023

Wheat prices stepped again lower. Canola/rapeseed gained. Australian dollar eased further .

  • Chicago wheat December 2023 contract down US10.25 cents per bushel to 671.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 2023 contract down 17c/bu to 784c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 2023 down 18.5c/bu to 822c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 up €0.25/t to €246.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December 2023 down US$0.50/t to $289.75/t;
  • Corn July 2023 contract down 6.75c/bu to 601c/bu;
  • Soybeans July 2023 contract down 2.75c/bu to 1414.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract up C$8.50/t to $734.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2023 contract up €15.25/t to €452.25/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract down A$6.50/t to $386/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract down A$10.20/t to $330/t;
  • AUD dollar eased one-third percent to US$0.6603


StatsCan forecast Canada’s wheat area up 6pc to 26.97 million acres (Mac), the largest area planted since 2001 and at the upper end of pre-report estimates. It forecast spring wheat area at 19.39Mac, up 8pc from last year and 10pc higher than the five-year average. It was, as expected, the biggest mover among StatsCan forecasts, and was at the upper end of pre-report estimates. Canola area was forecast to increase by 1pc to 21.597Mac, slightly below most pre-report estimates and slightly lower than the five-year average. Barley area, at 7.085Mac, was a rise of just 0.6pc, below the 5-year average and the below the average of pre-report estimates. 

UN Secretary-General António Guterres is scheduled to travel to Washington today to meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and members of Congress, according to UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric. Among the topics on the agenda are the war in Ukraine and the grain deal. “We are at a very delicate time in the renewal of the Black Sea initiative,” Dujarric said. He added that the UN was working to push forward a parallel part of the deal relating to Russia’s “ammonia pipeline” for selling fertilisers and grain but said that several obstacles remained. 

Poland said it would keep its ban on Ukrainian grain imports until the end of 2023. It expanded the list of restricted products to include sunflower oil.
Argentine wheat production would rebound to 19.5Mt in 2023-24, resulting in wheat exports of 13.7Mt, according to a USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) report, conditional upon rain recharging soil moisture, depleted by the severe drought of 2022/23, before June planting. It forecast barley export in 2023-24 up 13pc to 2.6Mt based on higher production, but noted exporters were concerned China may return to buying Australian origin barley. It forecast 2023-24 corn production rising to 54Mt, upon expectation of a return to normal weather, and forecast corn export at 38Mt. 

FAS forecast soybean area in Brazil to increase to 45.2 million hectares (Mha) in 2023-24, compared with 43.5Mha planted in 2022-23. It forecast soybean production at 159Mt, up from the estimated 152.5Mt harvest this season, basing this forecast on current market conditions and trends, including strong demand, high prices and favourable exchange rates. It expected those factors would persist well into the 2023-24 season. It forecast record soybean exports this season and next, at 95Mt and 98.1Mt respectively. 


Local markets were softer coming off Anzac Day, although spot-load-for-prompt homes still command a premium as the liquidity from grower sellers is somewhat limited during sowing. Canola was bid down to near $600/t track east coast but was lacking any real definition as sellers moved underground. New crop wheat and barley were also a fraction softer. 

We are seeing good sowing conditions for most regions. Rain this weekend will help establish crops and particularly will benefit canola. 

Cargill has announced a $73 million investment to upgrade and expand its Newcastle, Narrabri and Footscray oilseed-crushing facilities, with work expected to be completed by May 2024. In a statement, Cargill said the investment will cater to rising demand for canola and cottonseed products and provide Australian growers with further access to global markets.


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