Markets

Daily Market Wire 27 August 2018

Lachstock Consulting, August 27, 2018

Wheat continues to slide as corn and soybeans find slight strength..

  • CBOT wheat down -7.25c to 514.75c,
  • Kansas wheat down-8c to 519.25c,
  • corn up 1.75c to 348.5c,
  • soybeans unchanged at 842c,
  • Winnipeg canola up C$0.5 to C$497.10
  • Matif canola down €0.25 to €374.5.
  • The Dow Jones up 133.36 to 25790.35,
  • Crude Oil down -0.03c to 68.69c per barrel,
  • AUD up to 0.7327,
  • CAD down to 1.30161c, (AUDCAD 0.95381
  • EUR up to 1.16258c (AUDEUR 0.6301

Wheat

Global wheat markets have continued to fall away as the technical outlook continues to improve. This comes off the back of rains here in AUS, as well as the fact that US markets remain with significant length, with the latest COT showing Chicago long 12.6k from 14.2k and KC long 41.3k from 39,5k. This slump is due to the fact that we are considerably long futures and physical stocks take time to dwindle and don’t just dissipate at the drop of a hat.

Corn

The corn market is hovering at present. This won’t change until we see yield numbers in the next USDA projection, set to come out on September 12. As it stands now we can expect to see yields somewhere between 175-180bpa. Pro Farmer’s most recent projection has yields pegged at 177.3bpa. The latest COT had short 35,400 from 47,300 short the previous week.

Soybeans

The bean market seized its continuous fall with short covering helping it find modest strength overnight. The trade dispute between the US and China continues to simmer with nothing of note to come out of recent low-level talks. With Brazil’s currency, the Real, losing its grip we may see incentive for the Brazilian grower to empty the coffers.  Pro Farmer recent yield forecast was 53bpa. The USDA has reported 146,000t of new crop trade to unknown destination.

Australia

Domestically in AUS we continue to see a fall in prices across the board as rains have arrived in much needed areas in QLD and NNSW. As a result we can expect to see commitment to sorghum acres being planted which will in turn ease the stress on growers chasing feed. These areas will need to see more rain than what the last few days have provided, but as a starting point, it has arrived in very timely fashion.

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