Markets

Daily Market Wire 27 May 2022

Lachstock Consulting, May 27, 2022

Oilseeds gained 3pc overnight. Australian wheat contracts dropped 2.5pc.

  • Chicago wheat July contract down US5 cents per bushel to 1143.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 4.75c/bu to 1228.50c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July up 11.75c/bu to 1292.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €5/t to €409.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract up $2.75/t to $406.50/t;
  • Corn July contract down 7.25c/bu to 765c/bu;
  • Soybeans July contract up 45.50c/bu to 1726.50c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$26.80/t at $1054.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €27.75t to €822/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A$11 to $454/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $11.50/t to $463/t;
  • AUD dollar firmed to US$0.710.

International

Wheat was lower for most of the night session as the trade digested the renewed push to facilitate Ukrainian exports. Predictably, Russia reiterated it is happy to, as long as all sanctions are lifted; not likely.

Price is seemingly doing the job in old-crop US. Negative sales for the week make the USDA target close to impossible without the US giving away a bunch of wheat via donations.

The corn market is heavy. The seasonal removal of risk premium as the crop gets planted seems to be ignoring the wider implications of the Russian invasion. Regardless of the risk in front of corn, the market feels exhausted. Export sales were at the lower end of expectations but the idea that the Brazil-China deal is bearish for the US misses the point. Nothing is simple at the moment and the phyto deal will take a good while to work through. In the meantime, the markets are telling every consumer globally to switch from wheat feeding to corn feeding. Regardless, this is also a flow-dominated market which has been the millstone around corn’s neck.

As part of the EU’s solidarity response with Ukraine, the Commission today presented a set of actions to help Ukraine export its agricultural produce. The situation is threatening global food security and there is an urgent need to establish alternative logistics routes using all relevant transport modes. To address these obstacles and set up the Solidarity Lanes, the Commission, together with Member States and stakeholders, will work on the following priority actions in the short term:

  • additional freight rolling stock, vessels and lorries;
  • capacity of transport networks and transshipment terminals;
  • customs operations and other inspections; and
  • storage of goods on the territory of the EU.

Australia

The market rounds out the week as a mixed bag. Values in South Australia still remain hot and we have not seen any downside there this week. A little more weakness was seen through the Victorian market and northern markets round the week out relatively unchanged. New-crop wheat bids softened again yesterday, and canola bids were off A$20-$30/t,  but we saw gains in offshore rapeseed markets overnight which should see some strength follow back into local new-crop bids today.

 

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