Daily Market Wire 27 October 2023

Lachstock Consulting October 27, 2023

Wheat markets firmed. Canola eased almost 2 percent. Nearby Matif rapeseed was €5/mt lower but the May 24 contract settled unchanged.

  • Chicago wheat up US11c/bu to 579.5c/bu;
  • Kansas December wheat up 5.75c/bu to 654.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec wheat up 3.5c/bu to 724.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec up €1.50/t to €233.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December down 0.75c/bu to 479.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 7.5c/bu to 1327.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$11.20/t to $666.90/t
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 unchanged at €440.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$1/t to $393/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley unchanged at A$323/t;
  • AUD dollar up 12 points to US$0.6321


Agricultural marketing consultancy in Ukraine, Barva Invest, reported that Ukraine suspended use of its new Black Sea grain corridor due to what it sees as a threat from Russian warplanes. It said a de facto suspension had already been in place for two days at the behest of the military, which cited a threat from increased Russian military aviation activity in the area. 

US GDP managed to outperform expectations, growing at 4.9pc annual pace in the third quarter. Robust consumer spending seemingly shook off the higher rate environment, smashing the 2.1pc print in the second quarter. I am always amazed at some of the reasons economists point to when we see big moves. In this case, Taylor Swift and Beyonce concerts were a feature of spending along with the Barbie movie. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, clearly not a swifty, was quick to point out that growth will undoubtedly slow. This is also in line with some recent arguments suggesting the US will continue its tight monetary stance given the mistakes made in the 1970s where, arguably they took their foot off the rate pedal too early. 

The European Commission revised up its 2023-24 soft-wheat estimate, now seen at 125.5Mt, slightly above the September estimate of 125.3Mt. The export estimate was cut by 1Mt to 31Mt. The corn crop estimate was raised to 59.9Mt, from 59.8mnt and barley was cut to 47.5Mt, from 48.4Mt. 

The Manitoba Crop Report for the week ending 24 October noted that harvest is 96pc complete (95pc previous year), including canola at 98pc (98pc), soybeans 96pc (96pc), maize 49pc (20pc) and sunflower seed 58pc (13pc). 

According to Refinitiv Commodities Research, China’s wheat planting has progressed quickly this season against the backdrop of high local prices and expected good returns. Based on assumed average yields, production is seen at a high of 139.9Mt. 

The Taiwan Flour Millers Association purchased 52,000t US milling wheat for Dec/Jan shipment from PNW ports, including DNS (min 14.5pc protein) at prices in the range of $340.98-$376.43/t c&f and HRW (12.5pc) at $290.21-$325.66/t c&f and soft white wheat (8.5pc-10.0pc) at $270.06-$305.51/t c&f.


Local markets were subdued yesterday. The ASX eastern Australia Jan 24 wheat futures contract gained $1/t to finish the day at $393/t. Canola was the bouncer adding AUD$15/t following the offshore bounce back.

With harvest kicking off early, good progress is being made. It is nearly done in Queensland and well and truly underway in northern NSW. Barley quality is reported good with decent test weights. Wheat quality has been mixed with some reports of high screenings and low test weights but generally good overall considering how dry the season was. Yields and quality are expected to get better as harvest progresses further south.


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