Daily market wire 28 April 2017

Lachstock Consulting, April 28, 2017

Overnight markets:

Wheat and corn higher, with oilseeds mixed.

  • CBOT Wheat up 4.75c to 431.25c
  • Kansas wheat up 8.5c to 433.75c
  • Corn up 2.5c to 369.25c
  • Soybean up 0.75c to 957.25c
  • Winnipeg Canola down -1.899$C to 519.7$C
  • Matif canola down -0.5€ to 400.5€.
  • Dow Jones up 6.240 to 20981.33,
  • Crude Oil down -0.379c to 49.24c,
  • AUD down to 0.746c
  • CAD up to 1.363c, (AUDCAD 1.0175)
  • EUR down to 1.087c (AUDEUR 0.686).


Soybeans only managed slight gains, supported by stronger than expected export numbers. Some short covering was noted, as US export prices remain competitive with SAM offers. This suggests further US exports, which will reduce ending stocks and ease the carry burden. China remains quiet from a consumptive perspective, only covering nearby requirements in the presence of large global crops and forecast acreage increases.


Canola slipped slightly in the nearby (July), whilst rallying in the later contract (Nov), as a result of mounting new crop concerns due to wet and cold conditions in the Canadian prairies. The old/new crop inverse has rallied significantly in recent weeks, so new crop concerns should see that stabilise and soften to some extent. In Europe there is talk of potential frost issues with the French crop, though only mild chatter at this point.


Corn was supported by wet conditions in the US and the forecast for more of it. The window is closing daily, chances are farmers will get a break and be able to seed very quickly, but with a short this size it only takes a bit of doubt to encourage a bid. Weekly export sales were better than expected at 987.9k, though this was of minor importance in the face of weather concerns.


Wheat posted the biggest gains, with Kansas leading the charge. Weak export sales were ignored as the attention turned to the weather. The same event, which is delaying corn seeding, is causing concerns for damage and disease in SRW, while frost concerns in Kansas are keeping a bid behind HRW. In Canada the weather in the prairies effecting Canola seeding is having similar affects on spring wheat, which requires the market to review/reduce acreage estimates. Its getting to that point now, where the huge short may have discounted production volatility too much, which could see further rallies/reactions.


In Australia the forecast remains bare, which is good for seeding progress. The Aussie dollar has maintains its recent losses, which should see cash prices supported. The Bom continues to call for below average rainfall in the three-month outlook, though that is not of major concern at this point, given national moisture profiles and the Bom’s margin for error.

Source: Lachstock Consulting



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