Weather: Some rain is forecast for the back end in the US. Weather in Russia seems to have gone quiet, but it is worth noting cumulative rainfall is still well below the 30-year normal, and winterkill is still a risk so expect more news to come on this.
Markets: More red ink appeared overnight. Markets did not like President Trump’s tariff tweet. Tariffs are due to come into effect on 4 March. Wheat and corn eased further and Winnipeg canola lost some ground as well.
Australian Day ahead: The domestic market has been holding up well considering the work to the downside by US futures and the lower Aussie dollar will help take some of the sting out of last night’s losses. We can expect wheat/canola bids to be slightly lower but remain relatively well supported through strong domestic demand.
Offshore
At the USDA annual ag outlook forum overnight, key crop projections were as follows:
- Wheat planted area remains steady at 47.0 million acres, consistent with 2024. Production is projected at 1.926 billion bushels, a 5 percent increase from the previous year’s 1.83 billion bushels. This rise in production is attributed to improved yields.
- Corn planted area is projected at 94.0 million acres for 2025, up from 91.0 million acres in 2024. Production is forecasted to reach a record 15.585 billion bushels, surpassing the previous year’s 15.1 billion bushels.
- Soybeans planted area is anticipated to be 85.0 million acres in 2025, slightly lower than the 87.5 million acres in 2024. Production is estimated at 4.425 billion bushels, down from 4.5 billion bushels the previous year.
For the week ending 20 February, USDA reported weekly export wheat sales at 269,000t, down 50pc and below estimates, corn at 922,700t, at the low end of projections, and soybean sales at 414,500 tons, within the expected range.
Corn, wheat and Winnipeg canola futures fell after President Trump announced on social media that 25pc tariffs on goods imported to the US from Mexico and Canada would be implemented next week, clarifying his earlier remarks which had suggested a potential delay of another month. The Trump administration also said Thursday morning 10pc tariffs on China would be doubled.
US corn export pace remains strong. China is not the big player this year, with tight import margins noted, but we have seen strong shipment pace to Japan and Mexico. “Unknowns” were a big early player but they converted into actuals and were not cancelled.
Australia
WA canola bids worked higher yesterday to A$870 FIS, wheat lower to $367, and barley $348. Eastern Australian canola rose towards $800. It was bid $790. Wheat was slightly softer around $343 and barley firm at $318.
GM canola discounts have narrowed over recent weeks to around $90-$100 under conventional, down from $120. New crop GM discount is tighter, around $80, in eastern Australia.
The latest tariff announcement by President Trump supported the US dollar with the Aussie dollar falling below the mid 62 range.
Australian sorghum harvest is achieving record yields for the early crop. Early crop sorghum will make up 70-80pc of the expected total this season. Quality remains high, however the next 15pc exposed to heat during flowering is expected to see a dip in yield and quality, before improving again in the final stages.
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