Falls in wheat markets of at least 3 percent left all exchanges lower on Tuesday. The US dollar index settled again a little lower.
- Chicago wheat December down US 39.5 cents per bushel to 716.25c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December down 27.5c/bu to 840.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat December down 26c/bu to 853.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat December 2023 down €9.75/t to €244.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat December down US$2.75/t to $245/t;
- Corn September 2023 down 27.75c/bu to 556.25c/bu;
- Soybeans November 2023 down 28.75c/bu to 1294.25c/bu;
- Winnipeg November canola contract down C$7.90/t to $713.70/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2023 down €7.75/t to €441/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat down A$0.80/t to $404/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley down $5/t to $327.50/t;
- AUD dollar gained 11 points to US$0.6686.
Nearly all the central US is forecast to receive some rainfall between Wednesday and Saturday but it is the longer term 8- to 14-day outlook that is anticipating wetter than normal conditions likely for the entire central US.
UkrAgroConsult pegged 2023-24 Ukraine total grain production at 47.3Mt. It increased the barley crop estimate by 0.17Mt to 4.5Mt, reflecting better than expected plantings, left wheat and unchanged at 17.7Mt and 23.9Mt respectively. Its export projections saw wheat unchanged at 11Mt, corn and barley were raised slightly to 19.5Mt and 1.85Mt respectively.
An EU JRC MARS update on Russia noted that above-average production of wheat and barley was anticipated in 2023-24, but will be down on the prior season. A decent maize outturn is also anticipated, with conditions for growth having been positive to date. Total wheat output was pegged at 86.7Mt (-17pc previous year, +4pc avg), barley 20.4Mt (-11pc, +1pc) and maize 15.2Mt (+1pc, +9pc).
Morocco’s State grains agency ONICL reportedly will import 2.5Mt of soft wheat in July-September, the wheat destined to make subsidised flour. ONICL said it would accept origins from Ukraine, Russia, Argentina, France, Germany and the US.
Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier cut his US corn yield forecast by 2 bu/ac to 175 bu/ac and cut soybean yield projection by 0.5 bu/ac to 50.5 bu/ac amid falling crop conditions and drought impacts. Dr Cordonnier now estimates US production at 14.61 billion bu. for corn and 4.39 billion bu. for soybeans.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China will take steps to boost demand, invigorate markets and promote development, while accelerating the green transition and opening “high level” parts of its economy to the rest of the world. However, Mr Li didn’t provide any specific details, leaving markets wondering about the stimulus measures. He said the country was on track to achieve its 5pc growth target and anticipates an acceleration in economic growth during the second quarter compared to the previous quarter.
Local markets were quiet yesterday. Wheat and barley current crop values were largely unchanged. New crop bids and offers remained wide. Canola saw liquidity as higher bids encouraged sellers.
The forecast looks more promising each day for NSW and Qld with the BOM 8-day forecast now showing all of NSW and southeast Qld looking set to receive 15-25mm while southwest Qld has 15-50mm on the radar.