Markets

Daily Market Wire 28 October 2020

Lachstock Consulting, October 28, 2020

Markets weakened, oilseeds by a greater margin than grains

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US4.25 cents per bushel to 615.75c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 2.75c/bu to 549.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 3.5c/bu to 561.5c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €1.50/t to €205.75;
  • Corn December contract down 1.75c/bu to 416c;
  • Soybeans January contract down 7c/bu to 1076.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola January down C$3.90/t to $544;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract down €3.75/t to €392;
  • Brent crude December contract up US$0.74 per barrel to $41.20;
  • Dow Jones index down 222 points to 27,463;
  • AUD weaker at $0.711;
  • CAD firmer at $1.320;
  • EUR weaker at $1.178.

    US daylight saving time will end this Sunday, which will shift CBOT hours relatively one hour later in Australia

International

  • A week away from the election results, US politics remains in focus in the macro markets. The US Senate confirmed the new Supreme Court justice and then adjourning for the next two weeks.  The Senate adjournment prevents any possibility of a pre-election stimulus package and, depending on election results, increases concern about the potential for future delay.
  • Zeta hit Mexico last night, and is still set to move north with the models calling for landfall in Louisiana sometime Wednesday (US time).  The storm path maps have shifted slightly though, helping move the current rains in HRW areas further south and east towards Arkansas and away from western Kansas.  Much of western Kansas only saw a few hundredths to a tenth overnight and current map are calling for next to nothing across the northern half of the state this week.
  • Moscow-based agriculture consultancy SovEcon is calling the winter wheat planting at 94pc complete in Russia, much aligned with earlier reports about fast fieldwork in the dry weather.
  • Weather maps remain dry for Russian winter wheat areas, with next to no rain forecast across the two-week outlooks. Emergence remains a concern for much of the winter wheat area
  • Brazilian soybean planting was called 23pc complete as of mid-last week by a local analyst group.  The planting progress would be higher now, but compares with a 34pc average. Further rain is forecast and there’s increasing optimism about crop prospects.  Field work is reported to be picking up as weather allows
  • Jordan’s Ministry of Industry and Trade booked a boat of barley at a supposed US$239/t. The tender market there is slightly less than transparent or clear cut.
  • More debates are ongoing about the Ukrainian corn situation, with a mixture of defaults and delivery delays in the origination market with the lower crop.  Ideas about the impacted tonnage vary widely with the situation in flux as markets move and default negotiations continue.  Harvest was pegged at just over half complete the other week.

Australia

  • Headers start to roll again through parts of northern NSW, with the finish line in sight in Qld
  • Cash prices to growers were a touch softer by $2-3/t on the bid boards. Lower-priced ASX Jan 21 east coast wheat futures traded $329/t for small volume as global markets weaken
  • Yield estimates through NSW remain very positive on wheat, barley and canola
  • SA harvest continues to tick along with a jump in the Viterra receivals, an increase of 35,000t hitting the bin with barley the main commodity harvesting
  • WA harvest also continues to ramp up with wheat, barley and canola all hitting the bin in all four WA cropping zones.

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Source: Lachstock Consulting

 

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