Markets

Daily Market Wire 29 January 2024

Lachstock Consulting, January 29, 2024

US winter wheat markets eased about 2 percent. Canola rapeseed firmed a little.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat down US12c/bu to 600.25c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat down 12.25c/bu to 624.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 5.5c/bu to 703.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 down €3.50/t to €214.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 5.5c/bu to 455.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 14c/bu to 1216.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$1/t to C$629.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €3.25/t to €432/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat unchanged at A$372/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 7 points to US$0.6579

International

Escalation in the Middle East occurred yesterday as three US service members were killed in a drone strike at a base near the Syrian border in Jordan and 25 were injured. These are the first US military fatalities related to the Gaza conflict. President Biden said in a statement that, while still gathering the facts of this attack, it was known it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq.
Negotiators are close to a deal in which Israel would pause strikes on Gaza for two months if Hamas were to release 100 hostages. 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon increased its 2024-25 Russian wheat crop forecast by 0.9Mt to 92.2Mt, reflecting favourable weather conditions for winter wheat development. Since the beginning of January, precipitation in the main winter crop regions has been twice the norm, resulting in snow depths reaching 10cm in the south, 30cm in the central region, and 50cm in the Volga region. The update noted that if there are no substantial weather anomalies, these positive prospects for the Russian harvest could start exerting pressure on global prices around the end of Q1 2024. 

The Brazil 2023-24 soybean production forecast by Refinitiv Commodities Research was cut by 3.9Mt to 149.3Mt reflecting plummeting vegetation densities in top producing states. Satellite imagery show mixed conditions in key areas, with near record-low vegetation density in Mato Grosso and Paraná, but near to above average levels in most other regions. Weather over the past two weeks has been unfavourable in central-west and southeast regions, with abnormal warmth seen everywhere, except in the south, with some areas also seeing well below average precipitation. Amid low soil moisture conditions across the central-west and southeast regions, as well as poor weather outlooks for the second (safrinha) crop, 2023-24 maize production forecast cut by 1.4Mt, to 119.2Mt. 

The Polish Minister for Agriculture has said that the embargo on Ukrainian wheat will not be lifted until Poland and Ukraine set bilateral rules on the transfer of goods between the two countries. 

Statistics Canada’s Crush Report has December canola crush at 943,302 tonnes, up from 908,261 tonnes in November, and 826,445 tonnes in December 2022. This puts cumulative crush at 4.578Mt, up 14pc year on year.
Japan’s MAFF reportedly purchased 88,710t milling wheat in its regular tender, including 32,985t SW from the US and 55,725t CWRS (min 13.5pc protein) from Canada. 

In The Philippines importers reportedly seek around 90,000t feed wheat, for Apr/May shipment.

Australia

WA wheat values were a couple dollars higher on Thursday prior to the long weekend. APW1 values in Kwinana were A$412/t, H2 $420/t and ASW9 traded at $400/t FIS; there was also an increase in traded volume. We also saw some demand pop up for Kwinana GM canola at $670/t. Eastern Australian canola values were a touch soft heading into the long weekend, with markets following offshore moves. PKE CAN1 was at $640/t track while Vic was $10-15/t cheaper depending on site. 

The 8-day forecast has more heavy rainfall on the way for central and southern Qld with a widespread 25-100mm tipped to fall mostly over the next 4 days, with some areas of the southeast looking at up to 150mm. Northern NSW is looking at only 5-25mm, with the heavier totals near the border. A dry week ahead is forecast for central and southern NSW, Vic, SA and WA.

 

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