Markets

Daily Market Wire 29 January 2025

Lachstock Consulting January 29, 2025

The day ahead

Weather – Trends continue with moisture that was in yesterday’s back-end forecast being taken out for Argy. Seasonally, this is when rainfall starts to get going so forecasts will be watched closely. Russia is still warm and, for the main producing areas, dry – but it probably doesn’t matter for another month.

Markets -Turnaround Tuesday; markets bounced back overnight aside from the AUD which bled back under 0.6300, rejecting the 50-day moving average.

Australian day ahead – Grains up, oilseeds down. AUD fells like it wants to test the resolve of the longs which should add some support to local value.

Offshore

A federal judge has temporarily blocked the Trump administration from halting federal grants, loans and other assistance. 

Wheat fob price. Ukraine (green),  Russia (light blue), EU (dark blue) and US (orange). US$/t free on board. Source: EU Commission, Bloomberg via Lachstock. Click expand.

Russian wheat prices continue their rally as the realization that export quotas will be the key feature of the global market over the coming months. 

Export prices for 12.5 percent protein reached US$238/t yesterday, French was quoted at $247 while Romanian was seen at $246. Argy is still quoted as the cheapest wheat in the world at $229 fob.  

A wave of tuberculosis is hitting Kansas City – the biggest outbreak since 1950. 

Australia

Western Australian canola bids began the week down around $10 to be bid $840 FIS. Wheat was largely unchanged, bid around $369, with barley maintaining good levels of support around $335. 

Through the east of the country, it was a similar theme. Canola bids trimmed around $15 from Friday, to around $767. Wheat was down around $4, bid $342, with barley unchanged.  

Delivered bids through SA continue to be well supported as consumers look to get enough cover. Wheat delivered to Wasleys was bid $375, and Murray Bridge $360, with barley bids around $325 into homes through the state. 

Sorghum continues to be well-bid with competition between traders to accumulate tons, highlighting the positive export margins currently, with Newcastle track numbers around $340.

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