Mixed for grains and oilseeds.
- CBOT Wheat up 4c to 473c
- Kansas wheat up 4.5c to 480.25c
- Corn down -1.5c to 366.25c
- Soybean up 3c to 919c
- Winnipeg Canola up 4$C to 482.1$C
- Matif canola up 0.75€ to 351.75€
- Dow Jones up 143.95 to 21454.61,
- Crude Oil up .549c to 44.79c,
- AUD up to 0.764c,
- CAD down to 1.303c, (AUDCAD 0.995)
- EUR up to 1.137c (AUDEUR 0.671).
Soybeans firmer again in a quiet session lacking fresh inputs. The beans market is usually fairly cautious before a USDA report, so, given that flat price is not too far off yearly lows, with a large CBOT short, limited grower selling and some weather to overcome. It’s easily justified. Nothing notable from a demand point of view with Chinese enquiry/activity limited as they get through previously imported stocks.
Canola had another strong session, despite a stronger CAD ahead of tomorrow’s Statscan report. After testing technical support last week, it has well and truly bounced off this week, supported by report volatility surrounding Canadian acres.
Corn slightly lower as falling and forecast rainfall looks to be covering a good part of the Corn Belt. Like soybeans corn is fairly stagnant leading into the report, with a reasonable short positions, acreage reductions and some more weather to overcome. On top of this we concerns for the global front with hot weather in the Ukraine threatening yields there.
Winter wheat stronger again, lead by breakaway spring wheat that settled 22 cents higher. The spring wheat picture continues to decline, as we get closer to harvest, on top of this there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding acreage losses that will be addressed in the USDA report. The market is expecting acres 100k lower than the last update, so any deviation from this will through another factor into Spring Wheat vol. Globally there were no major developments, France received some showers, while Spain and Italy remain hot and dry. There is still a lot of valid doubt surrounding production in major exporting countries with Australia, Canada and the Ukraine all facing weather adversity.
The Aussie forecast a bit more interesting, showing some minor events. SA has some limited showers (5-10mm) for parts of the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas, but a lot more is required. Central and Southern WA looking at widespread 5-10mm on Saturday, which is not enough but welcome nonetheless. The forecast for NW NSW looks like it may miss the cropping areas in the far west that are in the greatest need. Without follow up moisture in the next two weeks, this may not get planted. Same old story in cash markets with both wheat and barley supported. Barley has gone to China and Wheat is holding back due to tax selling or bull spreading.
Source: Lachstock Consulting