Wheat continued to sell off through the Tuesday session in the US as production prospects in the northern hemisphere consolidate as harvest progresses.

• Chicago wheat September contract down 8.4 cents per bushel to 503.2c;
• Kansas wheat September contract down 11.4c to 432.4c;
• Minneapolis wheat September contract down 8.2c to 536.2c;
• MATIF wheat September contract down €1.25 per tonne to €177;
• Corn September contract up 3.4c to 419c;
• Soybeans August contract down 10c to 879.6c;
• MATIF rapeseed August contract down €2.50 to €361.25;
• Winnipeg canola November contract down C$4.70/t to $451.20;
• West Texas crude oil down US$2.80 per barrel to $56.60;
• Dow Jones up 69.25 points to 26,787;
• AUD up at $0.699;
• CAD lower at $1.310,
• EUR at $1.129.

US-China

Trade-war politics remain the big unknown for the macro world, with comments from US President Trump overnight noting that he expects China to concede on some sticking points and that any deal will need to “benefit” the US.

Beyond the US

A tender from Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities tender results saw only one cargo booked, a Romanian boat from CHS at US$196  per tonne free on board, or $210 cost and freight.  Meanwhile, Algeria is back in the market looking for more wheat for August shipment and, in the current market, it is unlikely to be anything other than French.  African Swine Fever has come back into the headlines, this time with Vietnam claiming that it believes it will soon have a vaccine to prevent. However, Lachstock has noted there is as yet no evidence that any research groups are close to doing the same.  At the same time, India has formally extended its acceptance of non-methyl bromide-fumigated grain and pulse imports until December, which opens the door continued shipments from areas where methyl bromide is restricted. 

Australia

Rain forecasts are still painting a beautiful picture for Western Australia, with some slight improvements to the maps filling in parts of the Esperance zone and calling for 15-25 millimetres or more across the entire WA wheat belt.  There has been little improvement to east-coast outlooks, and a few millimetres is all that has appeared on forecasts.  There was a strong move to top-dress winter crops in recent days across southern NSW, but sentiments have weakened with continued dryness on the forecast. Delays in urea supply have not helped. 

Source: Lachstock Consulting