Markets

Daily Market Wire 3 June 2024

Lachstock Consulting, June 3, 2024

Friday offshore market moves were small and mixed.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat down 2c/bu to US723.5c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat up 0.75c/bu to 741.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 1.75c/bu to 764.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 up €0.50/t to €264.75/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 down 4c/bu to 467c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 down 5.5c/bu to 1184.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 unchanged at C$683.20/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €1.25/t to €495.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat up A$2/t to $396/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley unchanged at $339/t;
  • AUD dollar up 20 points to US$0.6653.

International

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister said frosts earlier this month had destroyed crops on around 1 million hectares, including 850,000 hectares of grains. Despite the damage, he maintained Russia’s 2024 grain production forecast of 132Mt, including 85Mt of wheat but said 2024-25 exports will likely fall to 60Mt from 70Mt. 

Railway transport operator Rusagrotrans slashed its Russian wheat production forecast by 6.6Mt to 77.4Mt (92.8Mt previous year) and its export projection by 6Mt, to 43Mt reflecting a lack of precipitation and increasing temperatures in the southern and partly central regions and spring sowing delays in Siberia. It noted some downward risk to the crop forecast. 

The European Commission has trimmed its 2024-25 rapeseed production forecast by 0.3Mt, to 19.1Mt (19.7Mt previous year), with consumption cut by the same amount, to 24.2Mt (24.5Mt). The 2024-25 common wheat production forecast is unchanged at 120.2Mt (125.5Mt previous year). Barley production forecast was revised up by 0.3Mt, to 53.9Mt (47.5Mt) and maize production was cut by 0.4Mt, to 68.6Mt (62.7Mt) reflecting smaller area. 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that for the week ending 29 May, maize harvest was 30pc complete (29pc previous year), with conditions rated 53pc fair/excellent (51pc previous week, 46pc previous year). Fieldwork progressed slowly in northern and central areas, as growers waited for a reduction in grain moisture. Soybean harvest was 86pc complete (78pc, 87pc), with conditions rated 70pc fair/excellent (72pc, 74pc). 2024-25 wheat planting was 10pc complete (6pc year ago, 20pc 5-year avg). Amid favourable sowing conditions, area is projected to be up 5pc at 6.2 million hectares. 

The Saskatchewan Crop Report for the week ending 27 May noted that 2024-25 spring planting is 77pc complete (89pc previous year, 91pc five-year avg), including spring wheat at 84pc (91pc year ago), durum at 87pc (88pc), barley at 76pc (87pc) and canola at 71pc (84pc). Good crop emergence was reported, with most fields seen in excellent to good condition. Winter wheat condition is rated at 92pc good/excellent (84pc year ago), durum at 95pc (87pc), spring wheat at 91pc (87pc), barley at 94pc (88pc) and canola at 87pc (81pc).  

FranceAgriMer reported that as at 27 May, 2024-25 common wheat crop condition rated 61pc good/excellent (63pc previous week, 91pc previous year), durum at 64pc (64pc, 86pc), winter barley at 64pc (66pc, 88pc), spring barley at 73pc (73pc, 93pc) and maize at 81pc (83pc, 92pc). Maize planting was 97pc complete (85pc previous year, 98 five-year avg.) 

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has said that China will not attend a Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland next month because it does not meet its expectations, which include both Russia and Ukraine taking part.

Australia

Friday ended the week down across most markets. Liquidity had stalled again as buyers were happy to stand back after a solid week of grower selling. The ASX wheat contract ended the week a touch firmer, Jan 25 eastern Australia wheat closed up A$2/t at $396/t.

Rainfall totals have been close to what was forecast. Most cropping regions in WA picked up 10-25mm over the week, with higher totals towards the coast and in southern cropping zones. Parts of northern and southeast SA picked up 10-25mm, while the EP saw only 5-15mm. Western Victoria picked up 10-15mm, while central and eastern cropping zones saw 15-50mm. Most of NSW received totals of between 15-50mm, southern NSW filled in the blanks and Queensland picked up 10-25. The rain keeps Vic, NSW and Qld in a great position as we head into winter, while WA and particularly SA need more rain. There is more rain on the forecast for WA but not much for SA.

 

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