Daily Market Wire 3 October 2023

Lachstock Consulting, October 3, 2023

Chicago wheat recovered four percent on Monday following Friday’s losses of five percent. The US dollar index gained overnight and the Australian dollar eased one percent.

  • Chicago wheat December US564.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 676.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 718.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December €232.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December 488.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 1326.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg November canola C$707/t;
  • Winnipeg May 2024 canola C$726.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2023 €447.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 €466.25/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat A$406.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley A$357/t;
  • AUD dollar eased 64 points over two days to US$0.6365


According to the Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister, five more cargo ships are heading towards Ukrainian Black Sea ports to pick up grain for export. The ships are using Ukraine’s new humanitarian corridor. Ukraine’s Ag Minister says freight rates for ships using the new corridor are “still expensive,” but have dropped 30pc to 40pc in the past two to three weeks. The ships will reportedly be loaded with around 120,000 tonnes of grains/agricultural products for shipment to destinations in Africa and Europe. This will take the total number of vessels having been dispatched via the corridor to 10 since it was created in August.  

The US Congress narrowly avoided a government shutdown on Saturday by passing a stopgap spending bill to temporarily keep the government open, although the bill did not include any additional aid for Ukraine. The White House and leaders of both parties in the Senate pushed for more Ukraine funding to be included, and the failure to do so highlighted the decreasing willingness of some Republicans to fund Ukraine’s war effort.  

Stratégie Grains have revised 2023-24 EU canola production up by 0.6Mt to 19.5Mt reflecting better than anticipated harvests in Romania, the Baltic States, Germany, Spain and Italy. Production of 2023-24 sunflowerseed was revised 0.2Mt lower to 10.1Mt (9.3Mt previous year). 

The Alberta Crop Report notes that for the week ending 26 Sept 2023-24 spring wheat harvest was 89pc complete (95pc previous year), barley was 91pc complete (95pc) and canola was 62pc (75pc). Cool and dry conditions aided harvesting progress. Harvest was largely complete in the south and in some parts of the central area.  

The USDA Small Grains 2023 Summary pegged 2023-24 all-wheat production at 49.3Mt, higher than the Sept WASDE estimate of 47.2Mt, including winter wheat at 34.0Mt (33.4Mt Sept WASDE), durum at 1.6Mt (1.6Mt) and other spring wheat at 13.7Mt (12.2Mt). Barley output estimated at 4Mt (3.9Mt).  

The USDA Grain Stocks report, as at 1 September pegged US all wheat stocks at 48.4Mt unchanged from last year and slightly higher than pre report expectations. Maize stocks were estimated at 34.6Mt, down 1pc from last year and lower than pre report expectations. Soybean stocks were estimated at 7.3Mt, down 2pc from last year but higher than expected. The 2022-23 maize production estimate was revised 0.4Mt lower, to 348.4Mt and soybean production was revised down by 0.2Mt, to 116.2Mt.   

US private exporters reported sales of 210,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023-24 marketing year and 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023-24 marketing year.


Local markets closed last week on a softer tone as the Victorians took their Grand Final holiday which generally left the market a little light on bids. ASX wheat felt the brunt of the softer tone finishing the day down at $406/t. 

All eyes are firmly on the rainfall front passing through the eastern states from today. The event will have varying degrees of impact on yields but none the less will be a positive event which will arrive just in time. 

The forecast varies depending on the model but looking at the BOM forecast released this morning most cropping regions of NSW can expect at least 10-25mm with heavier totals in the south (25-50mm). Vic can expect the same with the heavier totals in the east (50-150mm) which has the potential to cause flash flooding/crop damage. SA and Qld are generally looking at less than 10mm and WA has nothing on the map, although it did pick up some rain on Sunday night.

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