Markets

Daily Market Wire 30 August 2022

Lachstock Consulting, August 30, 2022

Chicago gained 4pc leading most wheat, corn markets firmer. Soybeans, rapeseed, canola eased approx 2pc. Brent crude gained 4pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US37.5 cents per bushel to 842.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 30.25c/bu to 912.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 23.75c/bu to 933.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €10.50/t to €329.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $3.75/t to $315.75/t;
  • Corn December contract up 18.75c/bu to 683c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 23.5c/bu to 1437.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was down C$17.30/t to $838.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €8.25/t to €621/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$3/t to $400/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract down A$5/t to $315/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.689.

International

A Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kherson region has Ukraine claiming a breakthrough and Russia claiming it failed. The obvious question will be whether the export corridor agreement will hold up if there is an escalation. Consultant, Black Sea market analyst, SovEcon, believes the grain corridor will continue to work at least in the short-term unless there is a major war course change and that this highlights how fragile the agreement is.

Statistics Canada released its July 2022 satellite image-based principal field crop production estimates yesterday. Canola production for the 2022-23 marketing year is up 41.7pc compared to the previous year at 19.5Mt, about the mid-point of trade estimates and slightly higher than the 2020-21 level of 19.485Mt. The all wheat estimate is up 55.1pc to 34.57Mt, which is at the higher end of trade projections, but just shy of the 35.44Mt reported in 2020. Spring wheat production estimate up by 57.3pc compared to last year to 25.57Mt, while durum production estimate is nearly double at 6.47Mt.

Australia

Local markets firmed slightly yesterday with wheat bids up a buck or 2 on the boards for new crop, barley was also a fraction firmer through the day and canola was $3-5/t stronger. Current crop was relatively unchanged although we saw ASW1 in PKE firmer and quality wheat in Victoria continue to get a bid under it.

Average wait times for vessel loading have blown out in most major ports this week with Geraldton and Kwinana at 36 days and 31 days respectively. Newcastle and Albany have both increased to 15 days from 8 days last week and Brisbane has increased to 8 days. There are currently 17 vessels anchored with 10 loading.

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