Markets

Daily Market Wire 30 November 2023

Lachstock Consulting, November 30, 2023

Markets mostly firmed.

  • Chicago December wheat up 12.25c/bu to US556c/bu;
  • Kansas December wheat up 27c/bu to 640c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec wheat up 2.25c/bu to 696.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec up €4.75/t to €219.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December down 1.75c/bu to 449.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 0.5c/bu to 1378.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$4.50/t to C$712.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €4.50/t to €454.25/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat up A$0.50/t to $390/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley up A$3/t to $322.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 31 points to  US$0.6618.

International

Officials from Qatar, Egypt and the US are hoping to secure another extension of the cease fire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, which is set to expire today. 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned members not to underestimate Russia and its ability to continue fighting the war in Ukraine. Mr Stoltenberg said Russia’s economy was on a war footing, Putin has a high tolerance for casualties, and Russian aims in Ukraine have not changed.

The European Commission’s November MARS update notes that overly wet conditions have delayed 2024-25 winter crop sowing and affected crop emergence in western, northern and parts of central Europe. However, above-average precipitation was seen favourable for soil moisture levels and crop establishment in the Iberian Peninsula, Estonia and Finland, with little discernible impact on crops from recent cold weather noted in the latter. In contrast, dry conditions in parts of Spain, Italy, Romania and Bulgaria hampered winter crop seeding and early crop development. Rapeseed sowing has been finished, with crops seen in mostly good condition in the key growing areas in Germany, France and Poland, but with some concerns about wet conditions in northern Europe and dryness in south-eastern regions. 

Brazil’s Mato Grosso Institute of Ag. Economics notes that owing to unfavourably hot and dry conditions in Mato Grosso, an estimated 500,000 hectares of 2023-24 soybean crops will need to be replanted although near-term forecasts indicate beneficial rains. Some area is likely be shifted to other crops. 

European Commission data shows that for the week ending 26 Nov, all-wheat cumulative exports are at 12.4Mt (-19pc from previous year), while imports are at 5.0Mt (+34pc). Barley exports are at 3.9Mt (-4pc). Canola imports are at 2.1Mt (-31pc). 

South Korean flour millers purchased 95,000t milling wheat, including 50kt from US, comprised of 25,965t SW (9.5pc-11pc protein) at $256.38/t fob, 680 tonne SW (9pc), at $271.38/t fob, 7,545 tonnes HRW (11.5pc), at $266.38/t fob, and 15,810 tonnes DNS (14pc) at $301.38/t fob. They also purchased 45,000t CWRS from Canada reportedly in the mid $300s fob, Feb/Mar shipment.

Australia

Local markets were in wait and see mode yesterday as the rain rolled through SA, Vic and southern NSW. ASX Jan 24 wheat closed slightly firmer at $390/t. Canola was up by around $5/t largely reflecting offshore moves.

After some massive 24-hour totals through southern NSW, the rain is expected to mostly clear today and will be relatively dry over the next 8 days for most cropping regions, except for eastern Vic which is expecting more rain today and tomorrow.

Line ups data shows there is 2.55Mt of total grain on the stem at the end of November. Wheat is sitting at 1.1Mt down from 1.17Mt, barley is at 905kt up from 845kt, canola and sorghum are unchanged at 503kt and 40kt respectively. We have recorded another 90kt of barley exported to China for Nov bringing the volume to 605kt out of the 905kt total. We have seen a slight decrease in average wait times this week in most major ports, except for Kwinana. Overall the maximum wait time is less than 13 days down from 16 last week. There are 7 vessels anchored and 11 loading at Australian ports.

 

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