Escalation occurred yesterday as drones attacked six regions of Russia with four Russian military cargo planes damaged at an airfield in Pskov, near the border with Estonia. Reuters reported the Russian foreign ministry as saying the attacks would “not go unpunished” and that the drones could not have reached so far into Russian territory without Western help. Russia launched a wave of attacks on Ukraine early yesterday that targeted three regions, killing at least two people. Russia also said it had destroyed four military boats carrying up to 50 members of the Ukrainian special forces who were operating in the Black Sea.
Despite the above, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the Black Sea grain deal would be one of the items on the agenda of Minister Lavrov’s talks on Thursday and Friday with his Turkish counterpart. 

Egypt’s GASC purchased 120kt of French wheat at $279.49/t for Oct. 5-20 shipment and 120kt of Romanian wheat at $275.75/t for Oct. 25-Nov 10 shipment. Russia’s unofficial floor price, believed to be about $270/t, reduced the competitiveness of Russian wheat in the tender. 

Brazil grain exporter association, ANEC, revised down its August soybean export forecast by 0.3Mt, to 7.3Mt (5.1Mt August last year), cut soymeal exports 0.2Mt, to 1.9Mt (1.7Mt). Maize export forecast was revised up by 0.2Mt, to 9.2Mt (6.9Mt previous year). 

The Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development crop report, for the week ending 27 August notes that limited rainfall was recorded across most of the province, albeit storms brought heavy precipitation and hail to some isolated areas. Harvesting of 2023-24 winter wheat progressed to 96pc complete (69pc previous year), spring wheat at 32pc (2pc) and barley at 38pc (less than 1pc) with crops in mostly fair to good condition. Canola harvest was 5pc complete (1pc previous year), mostly in the Central region, with overall condition mostly ranging from fair to good.
US private exporters reported sales of 266,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations during the 2023-24 marketing year. 

Algeria’s state grains agency (OAIC) seeks (31 Aug) 50,000 tonnes of durum for Oct/Dec shipment.

Australia

Local wheat markets were a touch softer. New crop bids were off $4-5/t and liquidity still remains the issues with lack of grower offerings. Current crop wheat bids were also a touch softer but continued to see parcels come to market. Barley remained largely unchanged and well supported through new and current crop. Canola was off and pulses continued to find a bid with values also largely unchanged on lentils through SA and Victoria. 

China has reportedly already purchased around 600,000 tonnes of Australian malt and feed barley since the tariffs were dropped at the start of the month. 

The BOM Climate Driver Update released this week notes that the El Niño “Alert” continues, with El Niño development likely during spring. Despite sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific exceeding El Niño thresholds and warming slightly over the last fortnight, atmospheric indicators suggest the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are not yet consistently reinforcing each other, as occurs during El Niño events.