Daily Market Wire 31 March 2023

Lachstock Consulting March 31, 2023

MATIF rapeseed eased almost 3pc and the Matif and Chicago wheat contracts both eased 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract down US12.5 cents per bushel to 692.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract up 1c/bu to 871.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023 up 1.75c/bu to 879.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 down €4.50/t to €261.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat May 2023 down US$1.25/t to $284/t;
  • Corn May 2023 contract down 1c/bu to 649.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract down 2.75c/bu to 1474.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$5.40/t to $764.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract down €12.75/t to €466.75/t;
  • ASX May 2023 wheat contract down A$1/t to $391/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$4.50/t to $402.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$332.20/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 28 points to US$0.6712


Refinitiv Commodities Research reported that in Brazil, due to slight harvest delays despite drier weather, the 2022-23 soybean production forecast was revised down by 0.3Mt, to 152.4Mt (151.4Mt Conab Mar). Forecast of warm and dry weather over the next ten days is expected to be beneficial for harvesting. Total maize production forecast cut by 0.3Mt, to 124.5Mt (124.7Mt Conab Mar) due to ongoing delays to second (safrinha) crop plantings, paired with hot and dry weather across key cropping areas in the centre-west and the southeast. Near-term weather outlooks point towards hot and dry conditions, potentially hindering early second crop development.

US weekly wheat sales of 151,700t were up 21pc from the previous week, but down 40pc from the prior 4-week average. Corn sales of 1,036,400t were down 67pc from the previous week and 34pc from the prior 4-week average. soybean sales of 348,200t were up noticeably from the previous week and up 36pc from the prior 4-week average, with increases primarily for China. 

The European Commission expects total 2023-24 grain production in the EU to increase by 8.4pc y/y to 287.9Mt, assuming normal weather. Exports may increase by a similar level. Soft-wheat production was seen at 130.9Mt, barley at 54.2Mt, corn at 65Mt, oilseed production seen at a record 33.6Mt, up 7pc y/y as rapeseed plantings rose due to high prices.

According to Brazil’s Finance Ministry’s International Affairs Secretary, Brazil and China have agreed to start trading based on the Chinese renminbi (RMB) instead of the US dollar, with the scheme aimed at reducing transaction costs. 

The government statistics agency in Russian, Rosstat, estimated on-farm wheat stocks at 17.4Mt as of 1 March, 82pc higher than the 5-year average. 

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange held production forecasts steady this week, with soybean production at 25Mt and corn production at 36Mt. 

All eyes will be on USDA Stocks Report and USDA Prospective Plantings Report both of which will be published tonight. 


Local eastern Australian current crop markets remained steady. New crop APW1 Port Kembla was bid around A$410/t. ASX Eastern Australia wheat January 24 traded at $400/t. Current crop canola values continued to strengthen too, across the board.

The Bureau of Meteorology short-term outlook 4-17 April has the excellent autumn break continuing with very high chance of above average rainfall across SA, Vic, NSW and Qld. The chance of below average rainfall increased in WA.

Its Climate Driver Update released this week has the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) currently neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño). The ENSO Outlook is at El Niño WATCH. An El Niño WATCH is not a guarantee that El Niño will occur, rather it is an indication that some of the typical precursors of an event are currently observed. An El Niño WATCH means that there is around a 50pc chance that El Niño will develop. This is about twice the normal likelihood of El Niño forming in any year. All but one of the seven international climate models surveyed by the Bureau anticipate central Pacific sea-surface temperatures will remain ENSO-neutral through the southern hemisphere autumn; one model exceeds El Niño thresholds from May


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