Markets

Daily Market Wire 31 May 2021

Lachstock Consulting, May 31, 2021

Friday’s spring wheat market gained and other wheat markets, along with corn and beans, retracted some of the previous day’s price surge.

  • Chicago wheat July contract down US12.75c/bu to 663.5c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 13c/bu to 613.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract up 10.25c/bu to 727.5c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €0.75/t to €211.25/t;
  • Corn July contract down 7.75c/bu to 656.75c;
  • Soybeans July contract down 6.5c/bu to 1530.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract up C$3.30/t to $890;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €0.50/t to €519.75/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.1 to 90.1;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.771;
  • CAD unchanged at $1.208;
  • EUR firmer at $1.219;
  • ASX wheat July contract up A$8/t to $308/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $3/t to $306/t.

International

Chicago fell 12.75usc/bu, Kansas was off 13usc/bu while Minni bucked the trend, closing 10.25usc/bu higher. Black Sea wheat futures fell USD$3.75/mt while Matif eased EUR$0.75/mt. Corn fell 7.75usc/bu, soybeans fell 6.5usc/bu, meal rallied USD$5.25/st and oil was off 1usc/lb. The Dow added another green close, up 64.81 points. Crude fell USD$0.53/bbl and the Aussie was trading at 0.7695
There were more questions than answers from Friday’s session. The Memorial Day long weekend will mean that Friday was month-end for most, and that we don’t get a market until Monday night US time.
The Russian export tax was set at USD$28.10/t for June 2-8.
Safras (Brazilian Ag consultant) was the latest to join the Brazilian corn crop cut band wagon – lowering their estimate from 104 million tonnes (Mt) to 95Mt (USDA 102Mt)
The French wheat crop condition was rated 1pc higher this week.
SovEcon sliced 800,000t off the Russian crop, estimating it at 80.9Mt due in part to lower spring wheat production.
The HRW belt is not in the bin yet. Even though yield estimates are massive, rain may have a say in the outcome because the 2.5 inches which fell though western Texas/OK/KS sparks the quality discussion.

Australia

Weather maps for 8-15 days are forecasting a widespread 5-10mm event for parts of SA through into Victoria, and up along the east coast. The 5-10mm events will keep the crops drip fed for now in most cropping regions, but growers will need a very kind 25-30mm event.
June Markets showed some life on Friday with bids up across the boards for both new and old crop. New crop canola rebounded, and east coast track values pushed back up towards $750/t.
The planting pace continues to power along, and we estimate that most areas are coming to the tail end of their programs. Some parts of SA have pulled up due to the dry conditions in parts of the Mallee and Murraylands.

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