Markets

Daily Market Wire 31 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 31, 2024

Markets eased at least 1 percent.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat down 10.75c/bu to US725.5c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 9.25c/bu to 741c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 8.75c/bu to 766.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €4.25/t to €264.25/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 down 7.75c/bu to 471c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 down 6.75c/bu to 1190c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 down C9.70/t to C$683.20/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 down €6.50/t to €494.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat down A$4/t to $394/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley down $8.50/t to $339/t;
  • AUD dollar up 23 points to US$0.6633.

International

Markets rally on lack of rain and fall on rain. A combination of better forecast in the HRW and proof of rain in Australia added to the sell side last night. The move does ignore the fact that Russian rainfall remains low and heat is starting to build. Balance sheets still are digesting what an 80-83Mt Russian crop looks like and, with the street moving to the bottom of this range it’s hard to see that the market has done enough. However, the pull back in futures is a reminder that, almost regardless of crop size, the northern hemisphere is about to kick off harvest. 

A round of wheat buying has been evident, seemingly forced by the shrinking Russian outlook, from South Africa on protein through to the Persian Gulf looking for lower quality. The steady supply of Russian grain has allowed the global consumer to be relatively hand to mouth, once again, placing heightened concerns about the Black Sea crop. 

There is more talk about India scrapping its wheat import duty, although the market has been talking about this for months. While its wheat stocks are near record low, rice inventories have been pretty good. 

The corn market is almost forgotten. Most expect crop conditions to improve in the US this week and the forecast looks close to perfect. The wheat/corn spread has done a bunch of work and, ignoring the few months at the start of the Russian/Ukraine conflict, is trading at decile 10. Much like the “it’s going to be a wet east coast Australian harvest” calls that are already circulating, there is a decent number of the weather community that have already put a flag up for late US summer with some extreme temps expected.

Australia

Local eastern market markets were off the boil yesterday as the trade took on the defensive position ahead of the rain. 

Track markets were publicly down A$10/t with little to no liquidity. The grower seemingly comfortable to not chase these values down for now. 

They were crop-saving rains for much of SNSW and part of Victoria overnight which will see crop potential maintained. SA recorded widespread falls of up to 10mm. 

Falls in WA southern coastal areas up to 25mm in parts were well received though most received less than 10mm.

 

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