Markets

Daily Market Wire 4 April 2019

Lachstock Consulting, April 4, 2019

US dollar was weaker and most futures closed firmer; Wednesday’s settlements as follows;

  • CBOT wheat May contract up 7c to 471c per bushel
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 3.5c to 436.75c
  • Corn May contract up 1.25c to 362.75c
  • Soybeans May contract down 1.25c to 898.75c
  • Winnipeg canola May down C$3.40 to $455.30 per tonne, price yesterday was 458.70
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract unchanged at €361.50/t
  • Dow Jones up 39 points to 26,218.13
  • Crude oil May contract up US$0.99 to 62.58
  • AUD up to 0.7110c
  • CAD up to 1.334
  • EUR up to 1.124

Commentary on markets

Winter wheat caught a bid overnight in the US, as Chicago wheat closed +7¢ to 471, KC +3.5¢ to 436 3/4, Matif +1 1/4€ to 188.5 on the earlier close, and meanwhile Minny continued yesterday’s sell off to close -7¢ to 534 3/4¢. Corn closed up a cent and a quarter to 362 3/4, and beans were off a cent and a quarter to 898 3/4. Canola lost $3.3 to $455.4 following news reports about yet another exporter being blocked from China (though not really a surprise given the ongoing problems) while Matif was unchanged at 361 1/2€. Crude oil’s recent rally has ground to a halt, with Texas off 12 cents to $62.5/barrel and Brent off a nickel to $69.3. The AUD has bounced back to 71.1¢ after yesterday’s better than expected trade figures while the CAD is $1.334 and the EUR 1.124.

Trade + African Swine Fever

The GBP has continued to firm slightly after the British parliament passed a bill today intended to prevent a No-Deal brexit. With that said, Lachstock is unclear as to how this would truly prevent a no-deal Brexit, as any requests for extensions will need to be accepted by the EU (which continues to suggest that it wants clear progress before agreeing to further extensions). At the same time, China/US trade negotiations are apparently producing some points of agreement (finally . . . ), with US economic advisor Larry Kudlow commenting to the press today that the Chinese have apparently acknowledged US concerns about hacking and technology transfers as having “a point”. No word yet on any US concessions, but some optimists are still hoping that we could see an agreement signed this month.
On an ag note, China announced yesterday that they will be requiring pork processors to check for ASF in raw pork – an ongoing reminder about the challenges they have faced in containing the disease and the ongoing risks to feed markets. ASF has also now been reported in Cambodia for the first time.

Wheat/corn

Algeria reportedly booked 120,000t at tender earlier this week, at ~$235 cost and freight value – most likely French at current values, though there has been some discussion that HRW could have worked in (would have needed to be offered at a discount to price). Touching back on earlier news – India has moved to allow 100,000t of corn imports (less than the 500,000t + discussed earlier and available under TRQ, tariff rate quota) which is raising hopes that they will eventually allow more. Although intended for feed, this needs to be non-GM corn though – significantly limiting the available supplies and adding risk to the business.

Australia, southern Europe weather

Domestic markets remain quiet – and weather models unfortunately have yet to shift towards any more moisture in the east.  Meanwhile, we continue to watch weather forecasts in southern Europe where they have been increasingly concerned about dry conditions.  Good rains are forecast into next week for Romania and to a slightly lesser degree in Spain, but maps continue to look dry for central and eastern Ukraine and parts of southern Russia

Source: Lachstock Consulting

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