Markets

Daily Market Wire 4 August 2020

Lachstock Consulting, August 4, 2020

Wheat futures fell 1 to 2pc. Other commodities firmed slightly firmer or were little changed.

  • Chicago wheat September contract down US10.25c/bu to 521c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract down 11.75c/bu to 430.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract down 7.5c/bu to 506.5c;
  • Corn September contract up 1.50c/bu to 317.5c;
  • Soybeans August contract steady at 897.5;
  • Winnipeg canola November steady at C$491.50;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €2.25/t to €180.25;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €2.00/t to €384.00;
  • Brent crude October contract up US$0.63 per barrel to $44.15;
  • Dow Jones index up 236 points to 26,664;
  • AUD weaker at $0.7125;
  • CAD firmer at $1.3394;
  • EUR weaker at $1.1761.

Markets

US crop progress figures were out again and brought little news. Corn crop condition was unchanged at 72pc good to excellent, soybeans up 1pc to 73pc, sorghum up 2pc to 55pc good to excellent, and spring wheat was up 3pc to 73pc good to excellent.

The winter wheat harvest continues to poke along, mostly up north in Montana, with the US Government pegging it at 85pc complete.  Spring wheat was pencilled in at 5pc complete, and all harvested area in the far south. It’s still a few weeks away in the north. A US sales flash reported 260,000t of soybeans was booked, including 8000t of old crop.

Export inspections were mostly as expected. Weekly wheat exports were 500,000t, soybeans 552,000t and corn 716,000t.  Note also 170,000t sorghum sold to China was in the process of being executed.

Globally, with markets starting to look towards next week’s USDA reports, public crop estimates are rising.  Russia’s Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) attracted some attention by again lifting its forecast of 2020 local wheat production to 79.5 million tonnes. The upswing is in line with the last few weeks of field reports, but the question will be how the USDA handles it come the August WASDE.

Corn and soybean yield ideas are pushing higher, both with recent weather and field reports. We should start seeing more crop-tour discussion soon.

Australia

The week has kicked off with a positive start after rain in Western Australia’s Albany zone pushed over 30 millimetres in spots.  Scattered showers fell across other WA port zones, and there were forecasts for more to come later in the week.  On the east coast, we’ve seen snow in parts of western Victoria. It’s amazing how quickly weather can change!  Weather forecasts have really filled in on the maps for this week, with 30-plus mm now predicted for almost all of New South Wales, and 15-20mm for the Mallee and Riverina.  Cash markets started the week lower. Wheat, cash and ASX, was off $3-4/t. Barley was also a fraction softer on the new-crop, with the strong AUD and weather forecasts all contributing to easing values.

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