Daily Market Wire 4 December 2018

Lachstock Consulting December 4, 2018

Higher for grains and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat up 5.5c to 521.25c,
  • Kansas wheat up 6.25c to 506.5c
  • Spring wheat up 6.75c to 582.5c.
  • CBOT corn up 4.25c to 382c
  • Matif corn up €0.25 to €173,
  • Soybeans  up 11c to 907.75c
  • Winnipeg canola up C$2.30 to $481.70,
  • Matif canola up €0.30 to €370,
  • Dow Jones up 287.97 to 25826.43,
  • Crude oil up 4pc to US$52.95,
  • AUD 0.735,
  • CAD  0.757
  • EUR 1.131


Wheat tried to break away on the China news but running away on price is not going to encourage export demand which US wheat needs. Inspections at 472,600t were near expectations. The Iraq tender is still pending with LC issues holding things up. US values appear to be the cheapest, but it its unclear whether they will get the business. Implied volatility in Mar SRW finished at 20.875pc. Matif wheat was up €0.75/t to €203.25/t, Black Sea Wheat was up US50c/t to $246/t and the Ruble was up 0.8pc to 0.015. Syria announced a tender for 200,000t of soft wheat from the Black Sea.


Corn followed similar price action to beans posting its highs early in the session before grower selling weighed in. Corn inspections came in at 1.035 million tonnes which is tracking ahead of last year, but the market was looking for a magic bullet in terms of Chinese imports, which many think is unlikely despite tariff removals.


Beans welcomed the trade announcement, but the market needed more details to sustain itself, so when grower selling turned up in the US and South America it broke well of its highs. Separate press releases between the two governments didn’t state the same things, so until we see tariffs removed the market will not be completely settled.  Soybean meal was up US$3.90/t and soy oil was up 0.48 points. Weekly inspections were 1.04Mt, which is on par with expectations.


Canola finished mixed with Canadian futures following price action in beans, while European futures retreated slightly. The Matif close was a surprise given that Strategie Grains came out advising a sharp drop in rapeseed area due to drought for next years crop.


Aussie markets tried to follow futures yesterday, before retreating to levels near unchanged from Friday. ABARES were out calling the Aussie wheat crop 16.95Mt, which confirms what the local market is thinking. The USDA will need to address this in their next WASDE report as they still at 17.5Mt. Weather wise there is no moisture on the horizon, sorghum prices continue to firm with limited grower selling prompting some to question the record crop ideas.

Source: Lachstock Consulting



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