Markets

Daily Market Wire 4 February 2020

Lachstock Consulting, February 4, 2020

Markets were mixed overnight. EU rapeseed 1pc lower.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up 1.75 cents per bushel to 555.5c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 1 1/4c to 466.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract down 2.75c to 533.75c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €1.5 per tonne to €189.5/t;
  • Corn March contract down 2.5c to 378.75c;
  • Soybeans March contract up 4.5c to 877c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract up C$2/t to $452.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €5.25/t to €387.25/t;
  • Brent crude March contract down US$2c per barrel to $54.50;
  • Dow Jones index up 143.78 points to 28,399.81;
  • AUD down at $0.6691;
  • CAD down at $1.3291;
  • EUR down at $1.1060.

Market news

Grains saw a quiet start to the week despite the overall macro scare about coronavirus and the collapse in Chinese markets yesterday – Chicago wheat ended up 1 3/4¢ at 555.5¢, KC up 1 1/4¢ to 466 3/4¢, Minny -3/4¢ to 533¢, and Matif -1.5€ to 189.5€ on the earlier close. Corn dropped 2.5¢ to 378 3/4¢ while beans picked up 4 1/2 to 877¢ (Matif -5.25€ to 387.25€ and Winnipeg +$2 to 452.5).

Crude oil has continued to free fall on the macro worries though, with WTI off a buck forty to $50.1 (Brent -$2 and a quarter to $54.5) even though the DOW did pick up 221 points by the close.

The AUD’s continued to weaken to 66.9¢, the CAD is at $1.329, and the EUR $1.106 with the dollar index about half a percent higher.

Cynicism about the US/China trade deal is back again in full force, with Bloomberg reporting its unnamed sources as saying China intends to “seek flexibility” on their promises made in the deal.  Although no formal request has been yet made, the comments strike to the heart of the concerns held by many that the Chinese government never had any intention of following through on the promises, noting that there’s been no visible action to begin following the deal even prior to the coronavirus problems.  Whatever the political path may turn to be, the ongoing absence of any Chinese demand is continuing to feed these concerns.  In the meantime, USDA has started paying the final tranches of the trade war payments to farmers there.

There was a flash bean sale today at least, with two boats sold to Egypt.  Bean inspections were also slightly better than expected, 1.35Mt, vs ideas up to 1.2Mt, with 550,000t to China but more EU business moving.

Corn and wheat inspections were both about as expected, with 562,000t and 413,000t respectively, including some white corn to Mexico.

No sorghum movements to be seen despite the outstanding unknown business.

With spring rapidly approaching, comments out of the Black Sea are starting to get more optimistic about the crop there. One estimate last night already calling for a crop just under 80Mt.  We’re still a long way from harvest, but expect crop conditions and estimates there to start gaining more headline space as summer approaches.

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Australia

Aussie markets continued to soften yesterday, wheat down $2-3/t across the board, wide bid offer spreads in the market and grower liquidity goes quiet to kick off the week.

Barley markets were a touch softer as well, with markets being largely on the offer side through the north and up into the Darling Downs.

There’s more confidence in the weather models for the next 8 days, with the BOM forecast still showing upwards of 100mm through parts of Queensland and down into northern NSW. WA and SA are forecast to receive showers across the cropping belts.

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