Daily Market Wire 4 February 2021

Lachstock Consulting, February 4, 2021

Beans and corn gained more than 1pc, wheat mostly rose a little. Canola was lower.

  • Chicago wheat March contract up US3.5 cents per bushel to 648.25c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract up 6.5c/bu to 625.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract up 4c/bu to 625c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €1.25/t to €224.75/t;
  • Corn March contract up 9c/bu to 552c;
  • Soybeans March contract up 16.5c/bu to 1371.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract down C$10.20/t to $695.10;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €2.50/t to €436.50;
  • Brent crude April up US$1.00 per barrel to $58.46;
  • Dow Jones index up 89 to 30,778;
  • US dollar index up 5 points to 91.10;
  • AUD firmer at $0.762;
  • CAD firmer at $1.278;
  • EUR weaker at $1.203


The new US stimulus package is still in the works, even though there is some more optimistic discussion about the economic recovery meaning potentially reduced stimulus needed into the early summer there. Markets are becoming fairly confident the money is going to hit by early March.

No new sales flashes from the USDA, although many still expect there has been more sold to China.  Market wires are catching on to the realization that sales reporting rules only apply once exports are committed.  Origination can be done without officially or fully completing an export sale though once the sales are completed for export they do need to be reported. It’s entirely possible to build a book prior to finalising overseas sales and hitting the reporting rules.

Ethanol Industry Association ethanol production figures hit 936,000bpd, 3000bpd more than the week prior. Stocks rose to 24.3 million barrels, mostly up in the Gulf. Would they be destined for the Chinese export program loadings?

Brazilian soybean harvest in Mato Grosso was pegged by the government at 5pc complete, with the ongoing moisture related delays and late planting. That compares with 27pc a year ago.

The late bean harvest is also kicking back Safrinha corn plantings, which were pegged at only 2pc for Mato Grosso, versus 22pc last year, although the few early fields in are reportedly in good condition

The trucker strike in Brazil did officially start the other day. So far only limited impacts are being reported, the situation being helped by the reduced logistical demand with the slow harvest.

Argentina’s reporting some renewed strike activity there though, with road blocks overnight expected to increase through the remainder of the week.

Black Sea wheat activity was reportedly picking up for new crop as we start moving towards spring. There’s more confidence from Russian farmers given the lower new crop prices, ironically enough, as they reduce the impact of the tax.


Locals markets were a whisker softer yesterday, with steady sales being reported early in the day but a few bids pulled later as some buyers finished covering what they wanted for the day.
Logistics are still a top priority and a few vessel delays in Geelong led to some road congestion there yesterday.
The ASX wheat current crop futures settled slightly firmer with March and May up $1.50/t to $299/t and May $303.50. Markets looking to open a little firmer today after the global board moves.
We’re starting to see more confidence in next week’s rain event forecasts. It is looking like widespread 30-40+ mm for inland NSW, and the storm currently moving down the coast of WA pushing 15-20+ for the wheat belt on latest models.


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