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Daily Market Wire 4 January 2019

by Lachstock Consulting, 04 January 2019

Grains futures were higher overnight

  • CBOT wheat up 7c/bu
  • Kansas wheat up 11c/bu
  • Spring wheat up 11c/bu
  • Matif wheat up €2/t
  • CBOT corn up 4.5c/bu
  • Soybeans up 4c/bu
  • Winnipeg canola unchanged
  • Matif rapeseed up €1/t
  • Dow Jones down 660 points
  • Crude oil up 30c to  $46.8bp,
  • AUD  $0.70
  • CAD $1.139
  • EUR $1.349

WASDE

The US government shutdown continues to provide headline fodder for journalists – who seem to have cottoned on to the idea that President Trump and the House Democrats may not cozy up very quickly. A Reuters story was making the rounds the other day noting that there was still time for the USDA to prepare the upcoming WASDE/Wheat Plantings reports – but as far as Lachstock can tell/estimate, the USDA will need to be back up and running at full staff by Monday to get that done. Forgoing any surprise political bridge-building in the meeting tomorrow, that looks extremely unlikely to happen so we appear set for a delayed or cancelled WASDE next week.

Wheat

Wheat markets have focused on the potential that HRW fills most of the Ethiopian tender (~400 kmt as of yesterday, though in the past they have not always taken the entire tender amount). At the same time, Pakistani exports are slowly starting to move with headlines focusing on the first 100 kmt hitting the market (most of this will likely end up in eastern Africa or regionally near Pakistan – but reduces the demand for US/EU/BSEA flows).

Corn and soybeans

On the row-crop side, Argentina is set for some favourable rains across most of the corn belt there this weekend and Brazil continues to see spots of drought (though as always, a week of dry is not enough to kill a crop). Back in the US, chatter is starting to focus on spring plantings, with questions about how many bean acres will really be cut with beans over $9 (and new crop beans ~945 too). Corn prices closer to 390¢ new crop are also attracting interest, but fertiliser inputs this fall were reportedly lower than expected (and the overall input cost of corn scares some bankers away). There’s still plenty of time before final decisions are made, but the flow through repercussions of a potentially higher than expected bean planting are raising concerns about even larger bean stocks builds.

Australia

Locally, later planted sorghum crops in the Downs continue to deteriorate with no easing of weather forecasts (hot and dry through the next week . . .). Earlier planted crops are mostly in good conditions – but the planting season is long enough that many fields are still at risk. Offers have dried up on the market, with no one keen to sell a crop that may not make it. We continue to watch the impacts here, given the importance for feed grains into the next couple of months.

Source: Lachstock Consulting

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