Markets

Daily Market Wire 4 March 2022

Lachstock Consulting, March 4, 2022

Wheat contracts again closed limit up, and the wheat/corn price spread at one point eclipsed 400c/bu.

  • Chicago wheat May contract up US75cents per bushel to 1134c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 75c/bu to 1150.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May up 60c/bu to 1118.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May contract up €25.50/t to €366.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract down $14/t to $325/t
  • Corn May contract up 22.75c/bu to 747.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May contract up 4.75c/bu to 1667.75c/bu;
  • Soybean meal up 1pc;
  • Soybean oil down 1pc;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$5.60/t to $890.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2022 contract down €7.25/t to €704.25/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract up A$5/t to $405/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $7/t to $395/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.732;
  • Brent crude oil futures down 2pc.

International

It has become clear the Port of Odessa is part of the strategic focus of Russia. All exports from Russia and Ukraine have ground to a standstill and only Romania is loading vessels in the Black Sea. Damage to infrastructure is difficult to ascertain but the damage will have a meaningful impact on price after the fighting.

The dislocation between US futures markets and global physical markets is not unprecedented, but this is extreme. US futures are a deliverable contract. Local US basis markets have fallen so fast it is hard to find a quote, but someone will find a way to deliver on futures if they remain at these levels.

The irony is that last time wheat futures moved this fast and high was in the 1970s, when there was rampant inflation in the US, and Russia executed what was later referred to as The Great Grain Robbery.

Corn has really been the laggard compared to wheat.

Australia

Port Adelaide track wheat was a stand out yesterday, quoted up $15-20/t by the end of the day.

Western Australian FIS values were firmer and eastern Australian lower grade wheat prices continued to strengthen. Early activity today is also firmer as evidenced by Clear Grain Exchange trading activity.

Barley continues from strength to strength. SA track values pushed to $360-65/t levels with a strong nearby export program.

Canola markets were relatively unchanged and tad sluggish yesterday after a big week. Aussie values are firming now and we see buyers stepping in to be more active. The issue of getting the grain out the gate remains.

Logistically we remain tight on road freight and freight rates continue to increase, eastern Australian port capacity also has a full program for the nearby. We did see CBH release 500,000t additional capacity this week which it will offer today to the export trade.

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