Friday’s offshore market moves were small.
- Chicago December 2024 wheat down US2.5c/bu to 568c/bu;
- Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 2.5c/bu to 566c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 4.5c/bu to 599.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €1/t to €217/t;
- Corn Dec 2024 up 3.75c/bu to 414.5c/bu;
- Soybeans Nov 2024 unchanged at 982.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 down C$4.50/t to $631.20/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 unchanged at €514/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 wheat up A$1.70/t to $325.50/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 barley down A$0.50/t to $276/t;
- AUD dollar down 22 points to US$0.6560.
The day ahead
Weather – Rains continued to fall throughout the US, although the rains did miss the western part of the HRW belt. More is on the way however, with another 4 inches forecast for central KS and right across the eastern belt. Cold is starting to hit south eastern Russia. Temperatures due to fall as low as 8°C below normal will slow growth on an already stressed crop. Good row crop conditions in South America.
Markets – Lots of noise to finish the week slightly lower. So many things in this market could blow things up but values tell you a different story. Russian values are a big piece of the puzzle but, increasingly, Matif wheat is crucial. At current Black Sea export pace France will have to be heavily involved, yet the spec is massively short Matif futures. something feels off. AUD languishing sub 0.6700.
Australian day ahead – Harvest flows will dictate direction this week. Most of the east coast is now rolling and, in general, yields are probably slightly better than anticipated. However, it’s as much about grower selling as it is production. With the AUD still low and signs that export demand is finding a pulse, values should hold.
Offshore
Cold conditions will impact the higher producing areas of Russia. It is always hard to gauge what impact this will have at this time of the growing season but, with the crop already moisture stressed, anything short of perfect conditions should support values.
Egypt is seeking wheat – 25 Nov to 5 Dec.
Recent better weather has allowed French farmers to get busy planting. Click on chart to expand.
A break in the weather has allowed the French farmer to get busy. While still behind normal levels the French wheat crop is approaching half in the ground. Winter barley is a little over 60 percent planted. The forecast turns wet in the back end of the forecast so planting pace will be watch closely.
US election is heating up with most polls indicating an extremely tight finish. Despite different rules around voter ID requirements in each state possibly slowing the count, we should have an answer by 6 Nov. Historically, the unsuccessful nominee will concede before officially losing. Not sure Donald Trump will concede if he is in that position.
Australia
In Western Australia on Friday it was another strong end to the week for canola bids, with conventional bids around A$865 and GM at $770. Wheat ended the week bid at $372, with barley at $320.
In the east of Australia, the canola bid finished the week up around $22, reaching $814 and GM at $766. Wheat and barley were largely unchanged to end the week.
Delivered Brisbane chickpea bids have found a level of support around $885 in the last couple of days, after falling from $1000 to $850 over the last fortnight.
As harvest moves further south in NSW, the volume of APW and ASW is increasing, with H2 making up 25pc of receivals, APW 24pc, and ASW 14pc. This is compared to a fortnight ago, where H2 was 39pc, APW 10pc, and ASW 3pc.
HAVE YOUR SAY