Daily Market Wire 4 October 2023

Lachstock Consulting, October 4, 2023

Canola and wheat prices firmed. The Australian dollar eased another one percent.

  • Chicago wheat December gained 3.75c/bu to US568.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December gained 6.5c/bu to 683.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December gained 6.75c/bu to 725.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December gained €4/t to €236.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December eased 1.25c/bu to 487.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 eased 5.57c/bu to 1320.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg November canola gained C$10.40/t to C$717.40/t;
  • Winnipeg May 2024 canola gained C$9.70/t to C$736.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2023 eased €0.25/t to €447.25/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 eased €4.25/t to €462/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat gained A$6/t to $412.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley eased A$4.70/t to $352.30/t;
  • AUD dollar eased a further 63 points, one percent, to US$0.6302


Bloomberg reported two more ships appeared to be heading to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports of greater Odesa, according to ship-tracking data. 

A European Commission MARS report on Russia noted that favourable temperatures and rains in southern and southwest areas of European Russia boosted yield potential for both winter and spring crop yields, although drier conditions in much of the Volga district adversely impacted crops. In western regions, maize benefited from benign conditions albeit earlier periods of hot and dry weather curtailed yield potential. It forecast total 2023-24 wheat production at 89.7Mt (-14pc from previous year, 8pc above average), barley 21.9Mt (-4pc previous year, 8pc above average), maize 17Mt, up 12pc from previous year and 21pc above average reflecting an increase in the area planted and higher yields. 

According to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry, 2023-24 total grains and oilseeds production was revised slightly higher to 79.1Mt, including wheat 21.7Mt (20.2Mt previous year), maize 28.5Mt (27.3Mt), barley 5.7Mt (5.8Mt), sunflowerseed 13Mt (11.1Mt), rapeseed 4Mt (3.6Mt) and soybeans at 4.6Mt (3.7Mt).
StoneX has revised its US corn crop estimate up to 15.202 billion bu. on an average yield of 175.5 bu. per acre (USDA 173.8bpa for 15.134 billion bushels). That is up from its September forecast of 15.102 billion bu. and a yield of 175 bu. per acre. StoneX estimates the US soybean crop at 4.175 billion bu. on a yield of 50.4 bu. per acre. That is up from its September forecast of 4.144 billion bu. and 50.1 bu. per acre (USDA 4.146 billion bu. on a yield of 50.1 bu. per acre).
Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier made no changes to his US corn and soybean crop forecasts this week. He estimates the corn crop at 14.93 billion bu. on a yield of 171.5 bu. per acre. Dr Cordonnier estimates the soybean crop at 4.05 billion bu. on a yield of 49 bu. per acre. He has a neutral bias toward both crops moving forward.
US private exporters reported the sale of 220,000 tonnes of SRW wheat to China during the 2023-24 marketing year and 265,000 tonnes of soybean.


Local values eased into the afternoon yesterday with an uptick in grower selling amid mounting confidence in the current rainfall event. Some very high rainfall totals fell across Vic in the past 24 hours. Rain is pushing into and across NSW this morning and throughout today. The 15-50mm forecast rain will be critical for maintaining yield potential. 

Line ups data shows that September ended with 2.69Mt of total grain on the stem down slightly from 2.74Mt the week prior. October is currently showing 2.18Mt of total grain on the stem. Wheat is currently showing 1.11Mt, barley 671kt, canola 394kt and nothing showing for sorghum. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates on hold yesterday but warned that Australia was not out of the inflation woods yet and that further interest rate rises remained a possibility. “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable time frame, but that will continue to depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks,” RBA governor Michele Bullock said.

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