International

According to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry, harvest is progressing quickly with 25.3Mt harvested to date (16.57Mt harvested this time last year), including 19.44Mt of wheat with average yields to date at 4.35t/ha (4.6t/ha previous year), 4.8Mt of barley with average yield of 3.7t/ha (4t/ha previous year), and 3.2Mt of canola, similar to last year.

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister also reports swift harvest progress compared to last season at an estimated 40pc complete, with 2024-25 production estimates maintained at 132Mt (142.6Mt previous year), including wheat at 85Mt (92.8Mt). Total grains exports in 2023-24 reached a new record of over 70Mt.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that for the week ending 31 July, 2023-24 maize harvest was 92pc complete (73pc previous year). Production was unchanged at 46.5Mt (37Mt previous year). Sorghum harvest was 96pc complete (85pc previous year). 2024-25 wheat planting now is complete, with conditions rated at 31pc fair/excellent (39pc week ago). Forecast rainfall in the next few days is expected to aid crop development and support fertiliser applications. 

The Saskatchewan Crop Report for the week ending 29 July notes that crop development accelerated across the province owing to prolonged hot and dry conditions, with moisture stress in many areas expected to impact yield potential. Farmers are indicating that an increasing number of crops will be cut for feed given concerns over yield potential under current conditions. 

FranceAgriMer reports that as at 29 July 2024-25 common wheat harvest was 67pc complete (86pc previous year, 84pc five-year avg), durum was 88pc (100pc, 98pc), winter barley at 99pc (100pc, 100pc) and spring barley at 54pc (94pc, 80pc). 2024-25 common wheat crop rated 50pc good/excellent (50pc previous week, 78pc previous year), durum at 58pc (58pc, 67pc), spring barley at 66pc (66pc, 73pc), maize at 79pc (82pc, 81pc).

Taiwan Flour Millers reportedly purchased 105,650 tonnes of milling wheat from the US in two consignments for Sep-Nov including DNS (min. 14.5pc) at US$335.06-$338.22/t c&f, HRW (12.5pc) at $324.51-$327.67/t c&f and soft white wheat (min 8.5pc to max 10.0pc) at $272.23-$280.64/t c&f. 

US private exporters have reported total sales of 334kt of soybeans to China last week for the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

New crop canola values in the west ended last week down around A$15/t to be bid at $781/t while GM canola fell to $706/t. New crop cereal values held their ground to end the week largely unchanged. In the east, new crop canola values were down $5/t at $718/t, new crop barley values were steady while Melbourne APW1 wheat gained a couple of bucks to end the week at $348/t. The ASX January 25 wheat contract ended last week down $2/t at $335/t.

WA picked up some more good rainfall last week, while most other cropping regions were relatively dry with some showers received in the last 24 hours in SA and Vic. The 8-day forecast has more rain pencilled in for southern WA while a band stretching through SQld and NNSW from today is expected to bring between 5-50mm.

The latest BOM outlook notes that there is a 60-80pc chance of above average rainfall in August across the winter cropping belt, with the better chances in WA, SA, southern/central NSW and across southern Qld. For the longer term 3-month outlook above average rainfall is likely (60-75pc chance) for WA, parts of central NSW and southern Qld, while other cropping regions are closer to neutral.