European wheat was firmer, rapeseed weaker. US markets were closed last Friday.
- Chicago wheat September contract closed for holiday;
- Kansas wheat September contract closed for holiday;
- Minneapolis wheat September contract closed for holiday;
- Corn September contract closed for holiday;
- Soybeans September contract closed for holiday;
- Winnipeg canola November contract down $1.50/t at C$474.90;
- MATIF wheat September contract up €1.75/t to €182.75;
- MATIF rapeseed August contract down €1.25/t to €376.75;
- Brent crude September contract down US$0.34 per barrel to $42.80;
- Dow Jones index market closed;
- AUD firmer at $0.6958;
- CAD firmer at $1.3549;
- EUR firmer at $1.1269.
The long weekend was marked by widespread increases in COVID confirmed cases across many US states. In his 4th of July address to the nation, President Trump made the claim that 99pc of coronavirus cases in America are “totally harmless”. This comment was polarising with the left wing press firmly on the attack. Regardless of the truth behind the comment, COVID will be a crucial input into the upcoming election, and according to the polls, the Democrats are forging ahead. It must be remembered however, that these same polls gave Trump next to no chance against Hillary in the last election.
Northern hemisphere harvest weather mixed
From a weather perspective its largely more of the same. Scattered showers would have impacted some wheat harvest but probably not a big deal. The US Wheat Associates released some SRW harvest quality results last week which showed a near-record test weight result. This came at the expense of protein however so the recent theme of lower quality but plenty of production seems set to continue. Europe and the Black Sea region had a relatively clear weekend of harvest weather although the southern Russian winter crop belt, in particular, is set to get up to 4 inches in the 5-7 day forecast.
Aussie markets rounded out last week firmer. Wheat was up $7-8/t in southern markets while in the north wheat and barley, old and new, firmed by $8-10/t. 20/21 season canola started last week softer, recovered some ground towards the back end of the week to finish up relatively unchanged to a fraction softer in the WA cropping zones.
AUD strength continues to still influence cash markets here for the new season crops. AUD charts show key support at 0.6833 while a rally through 0.6977 would indicate a push higher.
Queensland is set to finally get a much-needed drink with over an inch on the way between the 11th and 14th of July, according to the BOM.
The market will have to contend with a more positive forecast for the entire east coast growing belt.
Source: Lachstock Consulting