Daily Market Wire 6 March 2023

Lachstock Consulting March 6, 2023

Wheat eased. Corn, soybeans, Brent crude and the Dow Jones Industrials Average gained. The only moves >1pc were Matif rapeseed (gain) and Kansas wheat (loss).

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract down US4 cents per bushel to 708.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract down 9.75c/bu at 816.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023  down 3.5c/bu to 872.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 down €0.25/t to €275.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 down US$0.25/t to $296.75;
  • Corn May 2023 contract up 6c/bu to 639.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract up 9.5c/bu to 1518.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$2.80/t to $822.50/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract up €7.50/t to €538.50/t;
  • ASX May 2023 wheat contract unchanged at A$394/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$3/t to $405/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$326.50/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 39 points to US$0.677.


The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) global food price index dropped for the 11th straight month in February and was 18.7pc below the March 2022 peak. The February decline was driven by a significant drop in the price of vegoils and dairy, along with small reductions in cereal grains and meat, which more than offset a steep rise in the price of sugar. 

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported for the week ending 1 Mar, 2022-23 maize conditions were rated 44pc fair/excellent (49pc previous week, 76pc previous year). Dry, hot weather had resulted in major crop losses in parts of Entre Rios and Santa Fe provinces, with yields from the first stages of the harvest falling below initial expectations. Soybean conditions were rated 33pc fair/excellent (40pc previous week, 77pc previous year). The hot and dry conditions were likely to negatively impact yield potential and cause additional crop losses, presenting further downside risk to the production forecast. Despite below average rainfall, the projection for 2022-23 sorghum production was maintained at 3.3Mt (3.5Mt last year).

FranceAgriMer rated 2023-24 common wheat crop, at 27 Feb, 95pc good/excellent (95pc previous week, 93pc previous year), durum 91pc (92pc, 89pc), winter barley 93pc (94pc, 90pc). It said spring barley planting was 92pc complete (80pc, 35pc) and durum 97pc (97pc, 98pc). Crops have avoided cold damage this winter and soil moisture has been adequate despite an unprecedented dry spell over the past month.  

Ukraine’s First Deputy Farm Minister reported there were no plans to curb 2023-24 wheat exports based on the current supply outlook. With evidence of larger than previously anticipated plantings in southern areas, 2023-24 wheat area was forecast up by around 0.3m ha from Oct, to 4.1m ha, with production provisionally seen at around 16-18Mt.

To safeguard local supplies, the Indian government has decided to keep the curbs on wheat exports. “Since the export ban is going to continue, we expect that there will be more wheat available for the public procurement,” Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said last week. He said there was no report of damage to the crop yet and was optimistic that output would rise to the official estimate of 112Mt.

Turkeys State Grain Board reportedly purchased 465,000t feed barley, from the Black Sea region, at $276.00-$293.20/t c&f, for Mar-May shipment. 


Local markets closed the week slightly stronger on the day but overall, for the week, cereal prices finished close-to-unchanged. Canola also finished up $5/t on the day but was down $15/t for the week with offshore movements being mostly mirrored in local markets. 

Sorghum harvest continues, albeit with some small rainfall totals which slowed harvest for a day or so. The market continues to firm with any good quality grain being snapped up. Late rain on the later-sown crops is not likely to make any material difference to the quality and quantity, both of which have been slipping. 



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