Markets

Daily Market Wire 6 May 2021

Lachstock Consulting, May 6, 2021

Canola gained 4 per cent, while other markets typically rose less than 2 per cent.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US17.75c/bu to 744.5c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract up 17.75c/bu to 717c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract up 13.75c/bu to 782c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €5.75/t to €226.25/t;
  • Corn July contract up 11.75c/bu to 708.5;
  • Soybeans July contract up 4c/bu to 1542.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract up C$39.50/t to $933.50;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract up €5/t to €522.25/t;
  • US dollar index unchanged at 91.3;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.775;
  • CAD firmer at $1.227;
  • EUR weaker at $1.201;
  • ASX wheat July contract up $2.20/t to $314/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $4/t to $317/t.

International

Kansas set the tone, firming 17.75usc/bu to settle at 717usc/bu and Chicago wheat also settled 17.75usc/bu higher. Minnie posted a new contract high, trading 13.75usc/bu higher to settle at 782usc/bu. Corn couldn’t keep pace with wheat but still managed a lazy 11.75usc/bu rally – 708.5usc/bu on the bell. Canola also posted fresh contract highs with an unbelievable CAD$39.50/mt rally in the July to settle at CAD$933.50/mt. Beans were the forgotten son, only managing a 4usc/bu rally, meal was up USD$2.6/st and bean oil was the rare red print, easing 0.11usc/lb. In outside markets crude fell USD$0.39/bbl, gold was USD$2.4/t oz, the Dow put on 97.31 points and the Aussie went out at 0.7746.The intra-session yoyo continues to cycle. Seems wheat is now corn.

The Philippines bought 1 cargo for June/July shipment which, very rough and dirty, equates to A$338/t delivered Geelong terminal, right around current numbers.

Tunisia bought barley and while it wasn’t necessarily Aussie origin it works back to, once again, rough and dirty, A$275/mt delivered Geelong terminal, again smack on the current market.

As India grapples with COVID the government announced it will provide free food grains (wheat and rice) to 800 million people. Back of envelope this equates to 8 million tonnes (Mt) of grains. Luckily, India currently has near record inventories.

Bucking the trend (or playing the game?) China cancelled 140kmt of corn purchased from the US.

Weather wise, it’s more of the same news.  There’s no rain forecast for Brazil, entering the dry season. Likewise, we still need a drink throughout the US Plains into Canada, and parts of Australia are looking skyward.

Australia

Fantastic rains were received through the WA cropping belt with totals up to 60mm, most areas got 20 plus mm. Growers are having a great start to the season with rainfall totals for the past 60 days nudging 100+mm

New crop Australian wheat markets remained relatively steady on the boards yesterday. WA Kwinana zone APWMG grower bids were up $4-5/t to finish out around $345 FIS while across the east coast, the ASX Jan 22 wheat market settled down $4/mt from the previous trading to finish at $317/mt. Grower multi-grade bids were around the $320/mt track mark, Geelong/Melbourne.

New crop canola markets rallied again with bids in WA and the east coast up $8-10/t. There are reports of some re-sowing of canola starting to happen through southern NSW, as mice are still very active in that part of the country and growers are also hoping for another rain event.

Current crop values were relatively unchanged for the day, as tonnes continued to come to the market and trade across the country to meet the nearby demand for wheat and small tonnages of barley. Delivered wheat markets felt a touch softer for out-of-the-curve July-plus-carry demand; however, freight is still the worrying factor in this market.

The weather forecast for South Australia and Victoria’s Wimmera/Mallee regions remain patchy for the next 8-10 days. There are reports of growers now pulling up on some of their programs until more rain is received.

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