The day ahead

Weather – how much is too much. Parts of Arkansas through to Illinois have received over 8 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. Up until last week, Illinois still had 13pc of its corn crop to harvest and 10pc of the bean crop. A little more rain in the Black Sea region but missing the key areas. Ukraine pretty dry and cold but still early days. Generally okay from a weather perspective globally.

Markets – Election noise – FX bets were clearly unwound – cannot see the RBA leaving rates unchanged, as predicted, a reason to rally the AUD 50 points so seems logical that there was a bunch of position squaring into todays count. It literally could be weeks before we know – some suggesting who ever wins Pennsylvania wins the whole thing – we should get a look at this by the end of our day – maybe.

Australian day ahead – If the trade needed a list of reasons to stay on the side lines, they have been given a hall pass. Melb Cup hangover, harvest moving down the belt, election and mixed futures markets – that will do it. AUD firmer but watch election results as the world seems comfortable with the idea that, from a AUD perspective, Trump bad, Kamala good.

Offshore

Egyptian GASC ended up buying 290kt in its tender which was probably origin Ukraine and Bulgaria. No Russian or French. Hard to know if the Russian offers are simply adhering to the presidential sobering directive to not sell under the floor price or whether things are tightening up. The lack of French not a big surprise given the quality challenges after a very wet harvest.

Jordan, according to its Ministry of Industry, bought 60kt wheat and promptly retendered for another 120kt.

EU soft wheat exports currently total 7.76 million tonnes (Mt) as of 3 Nov vs 11.33Mt a year earlier. Barley exports are down 39pc year on year while corn imports are up 8pc year on year.

It is all clearly all about the election in the US today. Polling shuts around 7pm and follows the sun so we get some important states early – Pennsylvania being one of the key ones.

The longest US election to be decided in the past 50 years was the 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. The outcome hinged on the vote count in Florida, which was extremely close and led to a contentious recount. After a series of legal battles, the US Supreme Court ultimately halted the recount on 12 December 2000, more than a month after Election Day. This decision effectively awarded the presidency to Bush, making it one of the longest and most disputed election outcomes in modern US history. 

In a report to the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized maintaining an accommodative monetary policy and enhancing countercyclical adjustments to support stable economic growth and high-quality development, according to Xinhua News Agency. He also highlighted the importance of managing financial-system risks with stronger regulatory oversight. 

StoneX released its customer-based US yield survey yesterday afternoon, showing US corn yield at 183.7bu/ac, down from 184.0bu/ac in October. Coincidentally, the average analyst estimates for Friday’s WASDE report corn yield is at 183.7bu/ac too.  Its soybean yield dropped to 52.6bu/ac bushels per acre, down from 53.5bu/ac last month.  The average estimate for Friday’s WASDE report is at 52.8bu/ac.  Staying on the topic of Friday’s WASDE report, the average estimate for US corn ending stocks is 1.946 billion bushels.  The average estimate for soybean ending stocks is 532 million bushels.