Markets

Daily Market Wire 7 April 2022

Lachstock Consulting, April 7, 2022

Most commodity futures settlement prices eased less than 1pc below previous day closes.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US7cents per bushel to 1038.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 2.25c/bu to 1085c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May down 3c/bu to 1108.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €0.50/t to €364/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract unchanged at $355/t;
  • Corn May contract down 3.25c/bu to 756.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans May contract down 11.5c/bu to 1619.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract down C$6.70 /t to $994/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down €10/t to €792/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract unchanged at A$403/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $0.50/t to $405.50/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.750.

International

Though it is the week of the WASDE report it is hard to keep focus on USDA reports with what’s going on in the world. This report will use the 31 March acreage figures but there is still plenty of room for a surprise. Corn is fascinating to me. The need for trend yield and conservative export estimates make this report a line in the sand. Any poor weather forecast or incremental export demand will make the numbers hard to add up. Wheat is fresh off the poorest good-to-excellent rating in recent history and there is debate around new crop export pull, given Black Sea supply chain uncertainty.

Prices for anhydrous ammonia are over US$1,500 per ton currently, the highest they have ever been, according USDA data.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will announce a decision as early as Thursday on numerous pending applications from small fuel producers seeking to be excused from biofuel blending mandates, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The EPA has accumulated a backlog of more than 60 requests for the so-called Small Refinery Exemptions, sought by refineries that argue the cost of blending biofuels like ethanol into their fuel could put them out of business. A 2020 court decision narrowed the criteria for what facilities should be eligible for the relief.

Food inflation vs energy inflation. There is a continuation of the debate raging between the two largely inelastic demand points, food and energy.  It is a question of whether corn and vegetable oils should be pointed to the energy space or the food sector. Our only real analogue year to compare was 2008, but the different set of circumstances would make its relevance questionable. How do you compare a global financial liquidity squeeze due to a sub-prime issue with sanction-led price inflation? Does it matter? It is hard to model an outcome when we have stuffed so much money in people’s pockets over the past two years.

The impact of higher input costs is equally as hard to follow, begging the question whether the producer still just pay the number on the input costs because grain and oil seed values are so high.  For the most part you can still find inputs, they just cost more.

Australia

Local markets showed some life early then tapered off as the day went on.

We saw early trading and bid activity on wheat in Victoria and some interest for prompt delivery next week.

Wheat values were firmer by a buck or 2 and the delivered Geelong Melbourne ASW1 SFW1 spread is now into evens for April plus.

Up country domestic homes have also crunched in with Bendigo and St Arnaud homes pricing 10 under Geelong Melbourne SFW1.

Canola markets continued to firm on new and old crop. New crop values again pushed up over the $1000/mt in VIC, SA and WA as small parcels were let go into the market at those values for new crop.

Weather maps continue to look positive over the next 8-10 days with east coast rain continuing. The question remains now will growers be able to get on paddocks to plant in NSW. Scattered showers are increasing through South Australia which will help for that traditional Anzac Day start.

 

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