Markets

Daily Market Wire 7 June 2022

Lachstock Consulting, June 7, 2022

Wheat markets gained between 3pc and 5pc. French rapeseed firmed 3pc, corn 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US53 cents per bushel to 1093c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract up 49c/bu to 1170c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July up 38.75c/bu to 1230.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €19.25/t to €397.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract up $14.50/t to $413.50/t;
  • Corn July contract up 15.5c/bu to 742.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans July contract up 1.5c/bu to 1699.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$3.30/t at $1042.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €28.50/t to €799.25/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract up A11.50/t to $455/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $11/t to $464/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker to US$0.719.

International

The impact on markets of the situation in Ukraine is an example of reality versus hope. Late last week markets could not have felt more heavy as increased confidence around the humanitarian corridor was supported by the scheduled meeting with Turkey seeking access to Ukrainian grain. But, roll forward a few days and the reality that there is little to no predictability in war had a sobering impact on agricultural markets. Bombing of Mykolaiv and increased shelling of Kyiv makes the idea that Russia will allow access to Ukrainian inventory close to impossible. Even the meeting with Turkey, which is still going ahead as far as everyone knows, would not include any representative from the Ukraine, which would support the idea that Russia would take ownership of Ukrainian production.

The US has been at pains to let importing countries know that there are a bunch of vessels on offer in the market that are stolen from the Ukraine. North African nations are more worried about getting inventory, and would not care from where or from whom the supply is coming.

While some European countries are considering lowering their fuel bio-mandates the Biden administration has increased the blend in gasoline and diesel by 9.5pc from previous year level.

Corn got its first USDA national crop assessment, and it was predictably good. The market was looking for 68pc good-to-excellent rating, but USDA pegged the crop as 73pc good to excellent. It is just what the doctor ordered given tightness in global corn balances.

Australia

Markets began the week quietly.  Current crop bids remained largely unchanged and the buyers remains covered nearby. New crop cash wheat bids found a little strength over the course of the day to be up $5/t with ASX Jan 23 wheat futures trading up $11/t to $467/t. ABARES released their latest crop report with key takeaways;

National area planted to winter crops in 2022–23 is forecast to be the second highest on record at 23.4 million hectares.

Winter crop production in 2022–23 is forecast to reach the fourth highest on record at 50.9 million tonnes

Summer crops production in 2021–22 is estimated to reach a new national record of 5.5 million tonnes

ABARES June 22 report production estimates were;

Winter crops: wheat 30.3Mt, barley 10.9Mt and canola 5.6Mt.

Summer crops 21-22, sorghum 2.7Mt and cotton lint 1.3Mt.

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