Daily Market Wire 8 August 2019

Lachstock Consulting, August 8, 2019
Futures prices saw small moves overnight.  Crude oil, the exception, settled 5 per cent lower.
  • Chicago wheat December contract up 3.5 cents per bushel to 491.25
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 0.5c to 435.25c,
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 1.25c to 531.5c,
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €0.50 per tonne to €174.75;
  • Corn December contract up 1.5c to 414;
  • Soybeans November contract up 1c to 866.75c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract up C$1.40 to $449.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €0.25 at €373.75;
  • Brent crude October contract down $2.71 per barrel to $56.23;
  • Dow Jones down 22.45 points to 26,007.07;
  • AUD strengthened to US$0.6769
  • CAD strengthened to $1.3288
  • EUR weakened to $1.1206
In the wheat pits Chicago settled up 3.5 usc/bu closing at 491.25usc/bu, Kansas was 0.5 usc/bu higher to settle at 435.25usc/bu, while Minni softened -1.2 usc/bu to go out at 531.5usc/bu. Corn gained 1.5 usc/bu to go out at 414usc/bu while Beans were up 1 usc/bu to settle at 866.75usc/bu WCE Canola rallied 1.4 CAD/mt closing at 449.4CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing higher by 0.25 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones fell -22.5 points, Crude was down 2.89 bbl the Aussie was -0.00014 lower to settle at 0.6756, the CAD rallied 0.00251 while the EUR fell -0.00023
Looking at the market moves in agricultural commodities you could be forgiven for thinking it was a boring session. Macros were all over the map amid increased talk of global fiscal doom and gloom as Asian central banks took the knife to rates. Equities and gold both reacted swiftly (and inversely) while agricultural commodities, in general, went about their business. One key data point that gets overlooked in the whole “my tariff is higher, no my tariff is higher” trade war escalation is what actually happens to the tariff revenue. In the preceding 12 months the US Treasury has collected US$63 billion from tariffs – and this is set to rise with the incremental increases. The ability for the Trump administration to “redistribute” this revenue back into the US grower cannot be underestimated. The market reaction to what is becoming a heavily subsidised environment is difficult to extrapolate as does planting decisions as we drift toward the end of the year.
Back locally in Australia, we saw 10-15mm of rainfall through parts of South Australia, 15-20mm throughout the Wimmera in Victoria with more weather activity to come pushing through Vic and southern NSW for the balance of the week, a rainfall event through SNSW is now critical as we continue to see crop stress. Northern NSW and Queensland continue to remain dry on the outlook and still look to price at import parity. Local domestic markets are relatively unchanged on headline numbers, however we have seen bid/offer spreads widen on the back of latest weather event and northern markets lacking participation.

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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